Résumé
When a new US president arrives in the White House on January 20, 2009, the entire world hopes to turn a new page. The Bush era has generated serious divisions within the Atlantic Alliance, massively increased the volatility of the greater Middle East, spawned new and dangerous fissures in Central and South Asia, fostered a mood of uncertainty and growing unease in North Asia, offered a global rallying cry for Islamic jihadists, undermined the legitimacy of the United Nations, and fueled an unprecedented level of anti-Americanism across the globe.

Jolyon HOWORTH, Professeur aux université de Yale et de Bath, est chercheur à l'Ifri.

Commander l'article sur CAIRN

Résumé
In May 2008, Dmitry Medvedev became the president of the Russian Federation, and Vladimir Putin was appointed prime minister. Three months later, Russia was at war with Georgia. Even if this succession complied with the constitution, it did not comply with Western expectations.

Thomas GOMART, est directeur du centre Russie/Nei à l'Ifri et de la collection électronique trilingue Russie. Nei. Visions. Il enseigne à l'école spéciale militaire de Saint-Cyr.

Commander l'article sur CAIRN

Résumé
'Is Japan an absentee power? Or is it that Japan exists but its existence goes largely unnoticed? Given that its Gross National Product is second only to the United States', such questions seem strange. It is as if the Japanese state did not exist but the Japanese market existed as part of the global market. When Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was abruptly hospitalized for two weeks in September 2007 without having designated an acting prime minister, the Financial Times wondered whether the Japanese government might be able to function without a prime minister altogether.

Takashi INOGUCHI est professeur à l'université de Chuo. Directeur exécutif du Japanese Journal of Political Science, il a écrit plus de soixante-dix ouvrages.

Commander l'article sur CAIRN

Résumé
One of the most important questions today concerns the extent to which the Chinese regime will be able to transform itself, to respond to the internal challenges it faces, and to play a positive role in world affairs. Almost continuously since the start of its reform program 30 years ago, questions have been raised about Chinese power, its underlying nature, and its valuation.

Valérie NIQUET est directeur du centre Asie Ifri, et responsable du programme Chine.

Commander l'article sur CAIRN

Résumé
The decisive transition India embarked upon nearly two decades ago has developed through an interplay of perceptions that has created the intellectual conditions needed, both in India and abroad, for change to materialize. At the end of the 1980s, India was stuck in a paradox. On the one hand, it was the direct heir of a brilliant civilization anchored in 3,000 years of intellectual and material accomplishments, and was on the verge of becoming the second country on Earth whose population exceeded 1 billion. On the other hand, its historical depth and demographic expanse were not matched by the country's economic and diplomatic status.

Jean-Luc RACINE est directeur de recherches au Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), centre d'études de l'Inde et de l'Asie du Sud, EHESS.

Commander l'article sur CAIRN

Résumé
As a domestic market, the European Union (EU) 'at 27 members and more' is clearly viable. As a political body, it can only be viable if it is based on a reformed project. As an active and recognized geopolitical center, it is not yet viable. What can link these three key dimensions - economy, politics, and geopolitics - is the elaboration, explanation, and promotion of specific European interests.

Michel FOUCHER, géographe et diplomate, enseigne à l'Ecole normale supérieure (Paris). Il est membre du Conseil des affaires étrangères).

Commander l'article sur CAIRN

Résumé
To those who have been watching Africa since independence, including many of the nearly 1 billion Africans, it is a continent of significant shortfall, if not of lost hope. If the two main dimensions of independence are self-rule and self-development, Africa has slid downward on both dimensions over the last half-century. Yet, further implosion is not the dominant scenario. What is more likely is the continuation of 'democratic autocracy.

I. William ZARTMAN is Jacob Blaustein Professor of Conflict Resolution and International Organization at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) of Johns Hopkins University (US) and former Director of the SAIS African Studies Program.

Commander l'article sur CAIRN

Résumé
Since the dawn of the 21st century, and particularly since September 11, 2001, which is widely considered to be a turning point, unrest in the Middle East has intensified and has been expanding eastward. From Lebanon to Pakistan, crisis fronts have grown in number. Only the Arabian Peninsula and Iran, surrounded by unrest, are places of stability - but for how long?

Denis BAUCHARD is Senior Fellow at the Institut français des relations internationales.

Commander l'article sur CAIRN

Résumé
The prospect of a settlement of the Israel-Palestine conflict is more remote today than anytime in the last three decades. A culture of violence has gained ground on both sides. While the Israel-Palestine conflict may no longer be the central conflict in the region, it is certain that the absence of a settlement is undermining other efforts to address all manners of regional challenges.

Bassma KODMANI is the Executive Director of the Arab Reform Initiative.

Commander l'article sur CAIRN

Résumé
Twenty years after the collapse of the Soviet world, it may come as a surprise to some just how useful the Marxian conceptual apparatus still is for deciphering the world, especially through the endless contradictions between infrastructures (of a material, technical or economic nature) and superstructures (of an institutional, legal, and political nature).

Philippe MOREAU DEFARGES is a senior fellow and co-director of the RAMSES report at Ifri (French Institute of International Relations). He is the author of, among other works, La Géopolitique pour les Nuls (Paris: éditions First. 2008)

Commander l'article sur CAIRN

Résumé
Globalization has been the driving force behind the world economy for two decades. Economic growth, expansion of trade flows, a broad diffusion of wealth, hundreds of millions of people lifted out of poverty - all are testimonies of its impressive success. The world economy has certainly grown much richer, but it is not as homogeneous as it was once expected to become. We are not witnessing the undisputed expansion of pure market forces; rather, we are entering an era of competition among different forms of capitalism.

Jacques MISTRAL is Professor of Economics (CNAM). Head of Economic studies (Ifri), member of Le Cercle des économistes, he has just published La guerre des capitalismes aura lieu (Paris: Perrin. 2008).

Commander l'article sur CAIRN

Résumé
No one today contests the fact that the world is facing an enormous double challenge: to supply humanity with enough energy to support its continued development while simultaneously curbing global warming by cutting our use of greenhouse gases.

Jacques LESOURNE is the Chairman of the Ifri Energy Program's Scientific Committee, and a member of the Académie des Technologies de France.

Commander l'article sur CAIRN

Résumé
Despite all the measures taklen against al-Qaeda and like-minded organizations after September 11, 2001, Jihadist terrorism has remained a dangerous threat. Although it would be exaggerated to state that Jihadist organizations have become stronger, al-Qaeda's biggest success may have been that it avoided total disintegration.

Guido STEINBERG, former Advisor on international terrorism (Federal Chancellery, Germany), is a research fellow at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP, German Institute for International and Security Affairs) in Berlin.

Commander l'article sur CAIRN

Résumé
One country declares a state of emergency because of the presence of undocumented immigrants in its territorial waters. Another dispatches asylum seekers to offshore islands in foreign jurisdictions before considering their applications. Genetic testing is seen as a proper tool for coping with possible abuses of family reunification laws. To paraphrase Shakespeare, there are serious problems in the 'kingdom' of international migration and migration policies.

Christophe BERTOSSI is Senior Research Fellow (Ifri), and Head of the research program 'Migrations, Identities, Citizenship.

Commander l'article sur CAIRN