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Deterrence and Proliferation

Le lancement d'un missile balistique depuis l'eau

The prospect of completely eliminating nuclear weapons seems distant. In sharp contrast with the pragmatic ambitions outlined by Barack Obama in his 2009 speech in Prague, and even more so with the hopes brought about by the fall of the Berlin Wall, nuclear weapons should no longer be perceived as the symbol of a bygone era. Nuclear disarmament also appears out of step with the deep geopolitical upheavals that characterize the current international order – redistribution of power in favor of emerging countries, uncertain future of the transatlantic relationship, territorial rivalries and destabilization of the Mediterranean region and the Middle East…

Established within Ifri’s Security Studies Center, the Deterrence and Proliferation program intends to stimulate public debate and to further our understanding of the complexity of the nuclear issue in all its dimensions: technical, regional, diplomatic and budgetary. The role of nuclear weapons in national security strategies has to be grasped in relation with shifting balances of military power at the global and regional levels, both for nuclear weapon states and potential candidates to proliferation. To this end, the Deterrence and Proliferation program publishes and circulates reports and analyses on: nuclear postures, strategies and capabilities; multilateral efforts to reduce arsenals and strengthen the non-proliferation regime; and on the development of strategic capabilities closely related to deterrence missions (conventional prompt strategic strikes and ballistic missile defense systems).

Elie TENENBAUM

Research Fellow, Director of Ifri's Security Studies Center

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Héloïse FAYET

Research Fellow, Security Studies Center

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Jean-Louis LOZIER

Advisor, Security Studies Center

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16/06/2009
By: Mark FITZPATRICK

The nuclear taboo is customarily seen as a black and white norm, separating the world of the familiar from that of an unknowable afterlife. Though consequences of a breaking of the nuclear taboo use are certainly unpredictable, one can imagine at least some of them. This article attempts to do...

18/03/2009
By: James A. RUSSELL

Unstable dynamics surrounding Iran's nuclear program may be pushing the world closer to the use of nuclear weapons than is generally realized - perhaps closer than any time since the Cuban missile crisis. This paper proposes a number of near- and longer-term scenarios to illustrate the ways in...

22/02/2009
By: Chung-Min LEE

Although North Korea maintained nuclear ambiguity for two decades, it finally gave up the pretense of having a "virtual nuclear weapons program" in October 2006 whereas Iran continues on the path of nuclear brinkmanship. Whether Iran is going to cross the nuclear Rubicon remains uncertain but...

19/12/2007
By: Yuri E. FEDOROV

Yury Fédorov's analysis looks for the meaning of nuclear strategy in the international security context after the end of the Cold War. Will nuclear weapons really lose their importance - as some scholars suggest - or will they rather get new strategic functions against the background of an...

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