The extraordinarily troublesome year 2020 tested many international institutions and bilateral ties, but few experienced sharper challenges than the complex relations between Russia and Turkey, which have a strong impact on crisis developments in Europe’s immediate neighborhood.
The presidential and legislative elections held in Turkey in May 2023 confirmed the victory of the Islamo-nationalist coalition led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The economic crisis, the devastating effects of the earthquake in February, the deterioration of the Kurdish file, and the multiplication of geopolitical threats have undoubtedly favored the outgoing party, despite an unprecedented effort by the opposition to promote the need for an alternation. What is to be expected from this new mandate of Erdoğan, which will in principle be the last?
Building on the work of its Contemporary Turkey program founded in 2008, Ifri is stepping up its analyzes with a forecasting objective in its “Türkiye 2050” research project. Türkiye's domestic politics, economy and diplomacy will be scrutinized to shed light on blind spots, as to anticipate future trends.
Mavi Vatan, the "Blue Homeland": the Origins, Influences and Limits of an Ambitious Doctrine for Turkey Etudes de l'Ifri, april 2021
Turkey’s activism in the Eastern Mediterranean now appears to be guided by an ambitious legal and geopolitical doctrine, based on the claim of a vast maritime domain – the “Blue Homeland” or Mavi Vatan in Turkish.
Turkey: An Emerging Power without the Resources to Match Its Ambitions Politique étrangère, Vol. 85, No. 4, Winter 2020-2021
Turkey is adopting an increasingly hostile stance towards Western countries. Its activities in the eastern Mediterranean and in Libya demonstrate this.
Is Escalation Between France and Turkey in the Middle East and Beyond Inescapable? Geneva Center for Security Policy, Syria Transition Challenges Project, November 2020
In recent years, France and Turkey have been on opposing sides relating to Middle East concerns.
Turkey-China Relations: Ambitions and Limits of the Economic Cooperation Asie.Visions, n° 116, octobre 2020
At first glance, China and Turkey have many interests to cooperate. The deployment of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Turkey's colossal investment and financing needs, as well as President Erdogan's mistrust of the West, appear as many converging interests. Yet economic cooperation...
Turkey’s New Gas Discovery in the Black Sea and Its Potential Implications Editoriaux de l'Ifri, October 1, 2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Turkey’s biggest gas discovery ever on August 21, 2020. Initial findings show that the estimated reserve capacity is 320 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas.
No Peacemakers for the New / Old Caucasian War: Understanding the Armenia-Azerbaijan Clash Order from Chaos: Foreign Policy in a Troubled World. A How-to Guide for Managing the End of the post-Cold War Era. Brookings, September 30, 2020
A full-blown war erupted in the South Caucasus last Sunday, September 27, and as the two belligerents — Armenia and Azerbaijan — mobilize their forces under martial law, no international authority is trying in earnest to stop the hostilities. The conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh...
France and the Modernization of the EU-Turkey Customs Union: Interests and Obstacles Notes de l'Ifri, July 2020
This report is part of a joint endeavor of the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) at Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), along with Elcano Royal Institute (ELCANO, Madrid), The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM, Warsaw), Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI, Rome) and...
Competing claims have left Ankara isolated. Its efforts to stall projects threaten billions of dollars in investment. Europe’s top diplomat smiled for the camera as he took a helicopter flight over the disputed waters of the island of Cyprus at the end of June.