The New US Administration: Likely Major Foreign Policy Initiatives Report of the Ifri's Tuesday in Brussels on February 4, 2009

William M. Drozdiak, a member of Barack Obama’s advisor team on European affairs in the presidential campaign, presented his view on likely early foreign policy priorities of the new US administration – speaking from his own personal perspective and not as a member of the US government or the Obama administration. First, Mr. Drozdiak estimated that no newly-elected US president has ever encountered a foreign policy challenge as daunting as the one Obama is faced with: the US is currently confronted with a heavy economic downturn that has the potential of a great depression, two difficult wars and the potential of an armed conflict with Iran. Moreover, Obama needs to design a new policy towards Russia, China, India and the Greater Middle East, as the US must adapt to the new multipolar world order.

Europe

According to Mr. Drozdiak, key initiatives in the early days of Obama’s presidential term will include his trip to Europe in April, where he will attend the G20 meeting in London and the NATO meeting in Strasburg and Kehl, which marks NATO’s 60th anniversary. Besides these meetings, several concrete decisions could help to improve relations with Europe and restore US moral leadership: Obama’s announcement to close the Guantánamo Bay Detention Camp has been well received in Europe. Another step in this direction would be the decision to join the International Criminal Court. A bold US decision on climate change legislation would also improve transatlantic relations. As the US represents 3% of world population, but 25% of greenhouse gas emissions, it has a moral obligation to act in this area according to Mr. Drozdiak. Progress on various aspects, e.g. fuel efficiency, could be made quickly. This would also have positive foreign policy implications: if Senate, in line with the new president, approves conclusive measures in the next months, the US will have greater authority at the Copenhagen Conference.

Russia

Another new initiative could deal with nuclear disarmament. President Obama truly believes in arms control and an important engagement with Russia on this question should be envisaged. If the US now treats the Russian leadership with due respect, this idea should be well received. There have been good signs from the Russian side recently, so one can hope for a new agreement by the end of the year. It is important in this context that the US lives up to its commitments, e.g. concerning the Non-Proliferation Treaty – it has not done so in the recent past. But a large bipartisan agreement on the issue seems to emerge, as the recent initiative by George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger and Sam Nunn has shown. Progress could also be achieved on the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, as President Obama might push forward for its ratification. In relation to Russia, a more cautious stance on the Missile-Defense System, especially in relation to the planned bases in Poland and the Czech Republic, could help to achieve agreement on other points, which also include the Russian stance concerning the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. A more cautious approach towards NATO membership of Ukraine and Georgia should help to improve US-Russian relations, too.

Middle East

In the Middle East (and also in other areas), Obama might try to reach important deals in the next 18 months, as it is easier to move forward on such delicate issues in the early phase of a presidential term. Afghanistan and Pakistan seem the most urgent priorities now and one may expect the new US president to focus on the biggest risks for US security arising from the current situation. So his first goal will be to suppress the Taliban uprising in the border regions and fragment the Taliban movement. The upcoming presidential election in Afghanistan will be a crucial moment in this context, especially as Obama is rather critical about the incumbent president Hamid Karzai. A first important step concerning Afghanistan will be the reversal of the drug policy, as Richard Holbrooke, Obama’s special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, has announced to eradicate the poppy culture and trade. For achieving this, practical cooperation with Iran might be a promising option, as well as buying up the poppy production. In a broader context, economic reconstruction and rebuilding civil society will be further priorities in Afghanistan. The military cooperation with European allies in Afghanistan has proven to be difficult in the past. Therefore, the Obama administration will take a pragmatic and more flexible approach to this issue, i.e. also ask for help in other ways than providing more soldiers.

Iran

Concerning Iran, Obama will probably wait for the presidential election there before starting any strong initiative. It is essential in this context that Iran has the most pro-US population in the Middle East, which might bring the Iranian government under pressure to open talks. The oil price drop will further increase pressure on Iranian leaders. In short, the resumption of full diplomatic relations within one year looks possible. More generally in relation to the Muslim world, president Obama is likely to pursue his public diplomacy efforts, e.g. by giving interviews to Arab TV stations and journeys to Muslim countries.

Final remarks

Asked on the future of EU-NATO relations, Mr. Drozdiak estimated that it would be logical for both organizations to cooperate more closely. But as the issue has been on the agenda for a long time, President Obama will take a pragmatic stance on the question and rather not push it forward quickly. Concerning US-EU relations, Mr. Drozdiak said that there is a fear in the US that the EU will be too occupied with internal affairs (i.e. the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty) in the first year of the Obama administration. More generally speaking, the US is likely to continue working bilaterally with national leaders of EU countries, rather than relying on EU institutions. Even if the new administration has called for an “equal partnership” with Europe, it would be surprising to see this happen in reality, as the structural differences, notably when it comes to military power, are significant.

Concerning first hand sources on foreign policy priorities of the Obama administration, Mr. Drozdiak recommended to consult the notes of the verbal testimony by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, as well as the “Questions for the Record”, i.e. more detailed questions that did not get answered during the public hearing. These can be found at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/13/us/politics/13text-clinton.html?pagewa... (Senate confirmation hearing)
/files/KerryClintonQFRs.pdf (“Questions for the Record”)