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Observatory on Future Conflicts

The Observatory on Future Conflicts is a multiannual frame contract run by the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS), the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) and Geo4i under the supervision of the three armed services headquarters (Air Force, Army, Navy).

The aims of this observatory are to:

  • Give the armed forces a prospective and independent insight on the evolution of the conflict environment and its consequences on force structures to 2035.
  • Provide the armed forces with recommendations aiming at adapting part or all of their capabilities within the framework of a multidisciplinary analysis.
  • Consolidate the armed forces’ grasp of the evolving international geostrategic environment.
  • Reinforce the armed forces’ understanding of the evolution of the operational environment through the medium of in-depth publications and roundtable seminars.
  • Support a transversal analysis which crosses each armed service’s perspectives.
  • Bring about a new generation of strategic thinkers on these topics through the hiring of junior researchers within the consortium.
  • Develop ties between the armed forces and independent, policy-oriented research, both French and international.

The contract is jointly managed by Mr. Philippe Gros (FRS) and Dr. Corentin Brustlein (Ifri).


Research fellow, Director of the Security Studies Center


Marc Hecker is Ifri's Director of publications and Editor-in-Chief of Politique étrangère. He is a research fellow at the Security Studies Center. 


Research fellow, Security Studies Center, Defense Research Unit


Chercheur au Centre des Etudes de Sécurité de l'Ifri


Research fellow at IFRI's Security Studies Center, coordinator...

Jean-Christophe NOËL

Associate Research Fellow at the IFRI's Security Studies Center


Although it had never entirely disappeared, the surface-to-air threat was mitigated for three decades by Western air superiority. It now benefits from a modernization and dissemination momentum that will increasingly hinder expeditionary forces’ freedom of action. 

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