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Proliferation Papers

On the Strategic Value of Ballistic Missile Defense


Proliferation Papers, N° 50, juin 2014

Contrairement à l’Europe, où son utilité est encore largement débattue, la défense antimissile balistique (DAMB) bénéficie aux Etats-Unis d’un fort soutien. Un consensus favorable à...

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Between Allies and Rivals : Turkey, Nuclear Weapons, and BMD


Proliferation Papers, n° 49, 2014

Cet article examine les positions adoptées par la Turquie sur les armes nucléaires et la défense antimissile balistique (DAMB) à la lumière des évolutions récentes du programme nucléaire...

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Poland and Ballistic Missile Defense: The Limits of Atlanticism


Proliferation Papers, n° 48, janvier 2014

Depuis que la Pologne a manifesté son intention d’accueillir une composante essentielle de l’architecture de défense antimissile balistique (DAMB) américaine en 2002, le programme a connu plusieurs soubresauts....

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China's Nuclear Idiosyncrasies and Their Challenges

Jeffrey LEWIS

Proliferation Papers, n°47, novembre-décembre 2013

In many respects, the People’s Republic of China’s nuclear arsenal and posture appear unusual to Western eyes. From its “No First Use” policy to its nuclear warhead storage system, Beijing appears to think about nuclear...

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The Primacy of Alliance: Deterrence and European Security


Proliferation Papers, No. 46, March-April 2013

Since the end of the Cold War, the international security environment has been transformed and nuclear weapons have been marginalized in the West. However, the NATO security policies remain almost unchanged: deterrence is still considered as a...

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Command and Control in a Nuclear-Armed Iran

Shahram CHUBIN

Proliferation Papers n°45, janvier-février 2013

In the long standoff regarding its nuclear ambition, Iran has cultivated ambiguity and been loath to reliably assure the international community of its ultimate intentions, complicating Western efforts to understand, let alone constrain,...

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Ballistic Missile Defense in Japan: Deterrence and Military Transformation


Asie.Visions n°59/Proliferation Papers n°44, décembre 2012

In December 2003, Japan decided to be the second country in the Asia-Pacific to deploy a ballistic missile defense (BMD) system. Started in the 1980s as a defense industry cooperation initiative, BMD efforts have been highly prioritized since the...

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Deterring the Weak: Problems and Prospects

James J. WIRTZ

Proliferation Papers n°43, automne 2012

Strong states often fail to deter vastly weaker competitors. This paper explores some reasons of this failure and identifies factors that can increase the prospects that deterrence will succeed in these situations. It argues that deterrence fails...

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Proliferation and Nonproliferation in the Early Twenty-First Century : The Permanent Five Hold the Key to Success


Proliferation Papers n°42, printemps 2012

Since the early twenty-first century, the international nonproliferation landscape has experienced a shift from relatively steady proliferation schemes to more complex and diverse challenges. New entities are gaining access to nuclear material and...

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Cruise Missiles and NATO Missile Defense: Under the Radar?


Proliferation Papers, n°41, printemps 2012

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the threat of cruise missile proliferation is as equally challenging to NATO as the threat of ballistic missiles. Over the last two decades, the emergence of cruise missiles and UAVs as a threat has...

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Dancing with the Bear: Managing Escalation in a Conflict with Russia

Forrest E. MORGAN

Proliferation Papers, n° 40, hiver 2012

"Escalation", the tendency of belligerents to increase the force or breadth of their attacks to gain advantage or avoid defeat, is not a new phenomenon. Systematic thought about how to manage it, however, did not crystallize until the Cold War and...

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In Defense of Deterrence: the Relevance, Morality and Cost-Effectiveness of Nuclear Weapons


Proliferation Papers, n° 39, automne 2011

Since 1945, nuclear deterrence has frequently been the target of continuous criticism on strategic, legal and moral grounds. In the past five years, however, the renewed debate on nuclear disarmament has been accompanied by an increase in such...

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Intelligence and Nuclear Proliferation: Lessons Learned


Proliferation Papers, n° 38, été 2011

Intelligence agencies play a fundamental role in the prevention of nuclear proliferation, as they help to understand other countries' intentions and assess their technical capabilities and the nature of their nuclear activities. The challenges in...

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Russia's Nuclear Forces: Between Disarmament and Modernization


Proliferation Papers, n° 37, printemps 2011

Nuclear weapons have traditionally occupied an important place in Russia’s national security strategy. As Russia and the United States have been reducing their nuclear arsenals since the end of the Cold War, their relationship has undergone a...

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Strategic Stability in the Cold War. Lessons for Continuing Challenges

David S. YOST

Proliferation Paper, n°36, hiver 2011

During the Cold War, the phrase “strategic stability” gained currency both as a foreign policy objective and as an apt way of describing the fact that the United States and the Soviet Union never actually went to war. To what extent...

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Potential Strategic Consequences of the Nuclear Energy Revival


Proliferation Papers, n° 35, été 2010

Renewed interest throughout the globe in harnessing nuclear energy has raised concern about security threats from states and non-state actors while holding out the promise of more electricity for more people. The focus of this paper is on assessing...

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Chinese Perceptions of the Utility of Nuclear Weapons. Prospects and Potential Problems in Disarmament

Jing-dong YUAN

Proliferation Papers, n° 34, printemps 2010

This paper takes a careful look at China's perceptions of the role of nuclear weapons in its national security policy and defense posture. This is important because China is perceived to be the only country among the five original nuclear-weapon...

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North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Development: Implications for Future Policy

Jonathan D. POLLACK

Proliferation Papers, n° 33, printemps 2010

Despite the resumption of high-level diplomatic contact between Washington and Pyongyang in late 2009, realization of a non-nuclear Korean Peninsula remains a very remote prospect, with the DPRK insisting that a peace agreement between the U.S....

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La Russie, la Chine et les Etats-Unis : quel avenir pour ce triangle stratégique ?

Bobo LO

Russie.Nei.Visions, n°47, février 2010 / Proliferation Papers, n° 32, Winter 2010

Au cours des dix dernières années, les débats étaient centrés sur l'émergence d'un nouvel ordre mondial dans lequel l'« unipolarité » américaine serait remplacée par des...

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In Search of the Nuclear Taboo: Past, Present, and Future

William C. POTTER

Proliferation Papers, n° 31, hiver 2010

One of the most puzzling - if positive - phenomena of the past half century is the non-use of nuclear weapons. This essay seeks to probe the underpinnings of nuclear weapons restraint, the strength and durability of the so-called nuclear "taboo" -...

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Numerology in the Second Nuclear Age

Michael KREPON

Proliferation Papers, n° 30, automne 2009

The nuclear numbers game has changed. During the Cold War, deterrence strategists claimed that the nuclear balance mattered, even at extraordinarily high numbers. By this musty logic, the United States now has more deterrence leverage against Russia...

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The Path to Deep Nuclear Reductions. Dealing with American Conventional Superiority


Proliferation Papers, n° 29, automne 2009

Dans un contexte de reprise du débat sur la réduction des arsenaux nucléaires, Dennis Gormley analyse les récents développements des capacités conventionnelles américaines comme moyen de...

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Dangerous Weapons in Dangerous Hands. Responding to the Challenges of Chemical and Biological Terrorism

Michael MOODIE

Proliferation Papers, n° 28, été 2009

Like much of the international security environment, the challenge of Chemical and Biological Terrorism has become more complex and uncertain in the last decade. Many issues related to CBW terrorism continue to be hotly debated, and new ones have...

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The World After: Proliferation, Deterrence and Disarmament if the Nuclear Taboo is Broken


Proliferation Papers, n° 27, printemps 2009

The nuclear taboo is customarily seen as a black and white norm, separating the world of the familiar from that of an unknowable afterlife. Though consequences of a breaking of the nuclear taboo use are certainly unpredictable, one can imagine at...

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Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East


Proliferation Papers, n° 26, printemps 2009

Unstable dynamics surrounding Iran's nuclear program may be pushing the world closer to the use of nuclear weapons than is generally realized – perhaps closer than any time since the Cuban missile crisis. This paper proposes a number of near-...

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The Evolution of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis: Implications for Iran

Chung-Min LEE

Proliferation Papers, n° 25, Hiver 2009

Although North Korea maintained nuclear ambiguity for two decades, it finally gave up the pretense of having a "virtual nuclear weapons program" in October 2006 whereas Iran continues on the path of nuclear brinkmanship. Whether Iran is going to...

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Heading for the Fourth Nuclear Age


Proliferation Papers, n° 24, hiver 2009

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President-elect Obama and Nuclear Disarmament. Between Elimination and Restraint

William WALKER

Proliferation Papers, n° 23, Hiver 2009

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Principles for Reforming the Nuclear Order


Proliferation Papers, n° 22, automne 2008

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Iran's 'Risk-Taking' in Perspective

Shahram CHUBIN

Proliferation Papers, n° 21, hiver 2008

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New Wine in Old Bottles? The New Salience of Nuclear Weapons


Proliferation Papers, n°20, automne 2007

Yury Fédorov's analysis looks for the meaning of nuclear strategy in the international security context after the end of the Cold War. Will nuclear weapons really lose their importance - as some scholars suggest...

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Deterrence Today. Roles, Challenges and Responses

Lewis A. DUNN

Proliferation Papers, n°19, été 2007

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China's Space Ambitions


Proliferation Papers, n°18, été 2007

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L'accord du 13 février et la question nucléaire nord-coréenne


Proliferation Papers, n°17, printemps 2007

Les négociations sur le dossier nord-coréen ont abouti le 13 février à un accord visant au démantèlement du programme nucléaire militaire de la Corée du Nord. Cet accord représente le...

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Cinq scénarios pour la crise nucléaire iranienne


Proliferation Papers, n°16, hiver 2006

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L'assurance pragmatique de la Chine: l'ascension économique et ses effets en matière de politique étrangère

Minxin PEI

Proliferation Papers, n°15, automne 2006

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Vers une coopération transatlantique face au défi nucléaire iranien


Proliferation Papers, n°14, hiver 2005

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La politique nucléaire de la Russie au XXIe siècle


Proliferation Papers, n° 13, automne 2005

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Les forces stratégiques russes: politique, évolution et perspectives


Proliferation Papers, n°12, été 2005

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Les orientations de la politique nucléaire américaine

William C. POTTER

Proliferation Papers, n°11, printemps 2005

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Vers des armes de nouvelle génération

Patrick Berche, Politique étrangère, 1/2005, (printemps).

Commander l'article sur CAIRNRésuméLes progrès des biotechnologies permettent d''améliorer' la virulence et la résistance des germes, bactéries ou virus. On a réussi à synthétiser in...

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La Chine et les défenses antimissiles de 1955 à 2002 et au-delà


Proliferation Papers, n°10, hiver 2004

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L'Evolution de la stratégie nucléaire des Etats-Unis et de la Russie

Nikolai SOKOV

Proliferation Papers, n°9, printemps 2003

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L'énigme nord-coréenne


Proliferation Papers, n°8, hiver 2002

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Bioterrorisme : comment évaluer la menace et réduire les risques?

Jonathan B. TUCKER

Proliferation Papers, n°7, printemps 2002

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Contrer la menace des missiles de croisière : réponses diplomatiques et réponses militaires


Proliferation Papers, n°6, printemps 2002

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Le Triangle stratégique Inde-Pakistan-Chine dans le nouveau contexte international


Proliferation Papers, n°5, hiver 2002

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Avenir de la dissuasion des puissances nucléaires moyennes (France et Royaume-Uni)

Sir Michael QUINLAN

Proliferation Papers, n°4, automne 2001

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Les Relations russo-américaines à l'épreuve de la prolifération


Proliferation Papers, n°2, printemps 2001

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Etats-Unis-Russie : quel avenir pour la maîtrise des armements?

William C. POTTER

Proliferation Papers, n°3, printemps 2001

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Par-delà l'héritage de la guerre froide : le débat attaque-défense et le rôle de la dissuasion

Lewis A. DUNN

Proliferation Papers, n°1, hiver 2001

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