Politique étrangère

The system that emerged after the Second World War to regulate international relations is now moribund. Russia and China may have weakened it, but it seems that Donald Trump’s United States may deliver the fatal blow. The prevailing atmosphere is one of power struggles, and the rise of nationalisms is fraught with danger. The artificial intelligence revolution also needs to be factored into this equation, as it has a strong bearing on how much power different players can exert. In this respect, Europe must ensure it does not get left behind.

The central role of technology in the competition between the major powers is fueling an ever-more intense rivalry. Artificial intelligence is enabling large corporations to accrue unprecedented power, with consequences for states and even for international conflict. However, states do have tools at their disposal to regulate these developments. In this international competition, Europe has a strong hand, but must be prepared to play its cards in order to create a new kind of international cooperation.

The construction of the European Union is historically inseparable from the emergence, at the end of World War II, of an Atlantic world dominated by the United States. Successive enlargements and the revision of U.S. policy are undermining the concepts upon which the European Union has been built since the fall of the USSR. It is undoubtedly time to return to a path of more diverse groupings, corresponding to the levels of commitment and the interests of the states of the Old Continent.

Economic insecurity and inequality make the governance of political societies and the international order more complex. Reallocating spending from the social commitments of the welfare state to the military budget is thus inadvisable over the long term. Instead, the welfare state should be oriented toward protecting production capacity, especially at a time when the means of production are potentially going to be revolutionized by the emergence of new technologies such as artificial intelligence.

The global energy system is constantly changing: rising consumption in developing countries, the growing role of electricity, vulnerabilities in supply chains, and the environmental implications of energy policy choices. The security of the system and the substantial investments required in the future can only be ensured through international cooperation, as exemplified, among other mechanisms, by the International Energy Agency.

It is tempting to conclude that international law’s influence is receding in a context where power struggles are in the ascendant, especially between dominant nations. But the law still carries weight: as the ultimate constraint on the use of violence, as a shared language for all human communities, and as a framework for action for those who seek to invoke it. It doubtless needs to be rethought and adapted to changes in international relationships, but without losing sight of its day-to-day importance.