Gazprom as a Predictable Partner. Another Reading of the Russian-Ukrainian and Russian-Belarusian Energy Crises

The recent crises over oil & gas deliveries from Russia to Ukraine and Belarus have triggered alarm and virulent criticism in the West.
The recent crises over oil & gas deliveries from Russia to Ukraine and Belarus have triggered alarm and virulent criticism in the West. This article describes how these conflicts are in fact not very different from those that took place in the early 1990s and reflect behind-the-scene conflicts between powerful factions inside the Kremlin and in Ukraine rather than the exercise of an "energy weapon". In the context of a European energy policy driven by Britain's panic at becoming a gas importer and by the ideological zeal to liberalize, the West should worry less about the exercise of a purported aggressive geopolitical strategy and more about Putin's lack thereof, and his inability to control his warring lieutenants. Above all, the West should stop considering that Russia owes Europe any gas beyond its contractual obligations, which it fulfills with alacrity.
Download the full analysis
This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.
Gazprom as a Predictable Partner. Another Reading of the Russian-Ukrainian and Russian-Belarusian Energy Crises
Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programsFind out more
Discover all our analysesWar as Social Elevator: The Socioeconomic Impact of Russian Military Keynesianism
In order to finance its war effort, the Russian state has spent substantial sums of money and implemented a form of “military Keynesianism” that is transforming society at both the socioeconomic and cultural levels. This has partially rebalanced the wide disparities in wealth, levels of consumption, and social prestige in Russian society by granting significant financial and symbolic advantages to peripheral Russia, which has long been overlooked by the central government.
The Contradictory Impacts of Western Sanctions on Economic Relations between Russia and Sub-Saharan Africa
How does Russia maintain economic ties with Africa despite Western sanctions? An analysis of investments, trade, and the circumvention strategies deployed by Moscow.
The Caspian Sea as an Emerging Energy Hub : Potentials and Limitations
This report analyzes the prospects of the Caspian Sea region — and its key actors except for Russia and Iran — becoming an important energy hub serving the needs of the European Union (EU).
The European Union's Strategic Test in Georgia
The political crisis brewing in Georgia is of an existential nature for the country. What is at stake is Georgia's future as a democratic and sovereign European nation (EU).