Ukraine's Scissors: between Internal Weakness and External Dependence

Barely one year after the Orange Revolution, Ukraine finds itself in the midst of fresh internal and external dislocations. In one respect, the revolution promises to be enduring. Ukraine is a democratic country with a vigorous political life, and a return to state intimidation and political stagnation is no longer feasible. But the revolution has not fulfilled its central promise: the emergence of authorities who, finally, would govern in the interests of the country rather than themselves. With few exceptions, there has been no attempt to challenge the country's dysfunctional institutional inheritance or replace the culture of patronage with meritocracy. This failing has not only created new internal cleavages, but reopened old international vulnerabilities. The Russian Federation has recovered from its post-orange disorientation and is governed by an elite confident that the country's wealth and energy resources can be used to create a 'sphere of predominance' on the doorstep of the EU. Russia's gas diplomacy in Ukraine, a key corridor to European consumers, reinforces the EU's broader stakes in Ukraine's capacity and trajectory. Without indulging Ukraine's illusions about EU membership, the EU needs to develop channels of integration that are both realistic and mutually beneficial.
Download the full analysis
This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.
Ukraine's Scissors: between Internal Weakness and External Dependence
Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programsFind out more
Discover all our analyses
How the Russian Army Changed its Concept of War, 1993-2022
The traditional and high-intensity war that has occurred in Ukraine since Russia decided to invade raises a key issue: did post-soviet Russian strategic thought really prepare Russia for waging this war?
Russia's Nuclear Deterrence Put to the Test by the War in Ukraine
From the outset of its “special military operation” (SVO) against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russia, which possesses one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals, has adopted aggressive deterrence measures and a resolutely menacing rhetorical stance.
Moldova's Crucial Parliamentary Election. What's at Stake?
On the occasion of Moldova’s National Day, August 27, 2025, Chișinău hosted a high-level European delegation composed of Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk, who sought to reaffirm their support for the country’s sovereignty and pro-European course. This unprecedented and highly symbolic visit took place at a pivotal moment. Moldova is preparing for decisive parliamentary elections on September 28, whose stakes extend far beyond the national framework.
War as Social Elevator: The Socioeconomic Impact of Russian Military Keynesianism
In order to finance its war effort, the Russian state has spent substantial sums of money and implemented a form of “military Keynesianism” that is transforming society at both the socioeconomic and cultural levels. This has partially rebalanced the wide disparities in wealth, levels of consumption, and social prestige in Russian society by granting significant financial and symbolic advantages to peripheral Russia, which has long been overlooked by the central government.