Politique étrangère
The Gulf Search for Power(s) / Politique étrangère, Vol. 90, No. 4, 2025
Persian Gulf countries have become heavyweights in the international arena, wielding influence both regionally and far beyond. Acting as diplomatic mediators, investors, and hosts of global events, they are attempting to move beyond their long-standing role as suppliers of energy resources and reshape their economic, social, and political foundations through ambitious national “Visions”. Their international alliances are proving increasingly flexible, broadening their diplomatic reach (even if Washington’s influence remains decisive)—with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates all part of a dynamic pushing many global actors toward multi-alignment.
Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds: Major Actors in World Finance
The sovereign wealth funds of Gulf countries have become key players in world finance. By investing colossal sums in strategic sectors, they contribute both to local development and the growing influence of the Gulf monarchies in the global economy and international politics. In the near future, they will have to grapple with two challenges: that of human capital, and that of their geopolitical position between the Global North and Global South.
Caught between China and the US: Southeast Asia’s Strategic Fence-Sitting
The secret of success for many Southeast Asian countries has been their choice of economic and diplomatic multilateralism. Fence-sitting between rival powers is becoming fraught. China inspires a degree of fear in the region, due to its clout and geographical proximity. And under Trump, the United States is on the offensive against the multilateral trade system, with major diplomatic consequences. Can Southeast Asian countries maintain their balance by embracing new partnerships?
Has ASEAN become Marginalized within Regional Security Architecture?
South Asian leaders continue to reiterate how “central” ASEAN is to the region’s security architecture. However, in practice, the tendency is to prioritize bilateral agreements, gradually marginalizing the organization. This fragmentation is weakening regional cooperation, accentuating divisions, and compromising stability in the context of growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific. These trends are worrying at a time when Sino-American rivalries are becoming more acute.
The New Diplomatic Weight of Gulf Countries
The political and economic weight of the Gulf monarchies has increased considerably. These countries have diversified their economies and become logistic hubs, attracting large numbers of investors. They have also managed to extend their power beyond their borders. However, the wider regional fallout of the war begun by Hamas on October 7, 2023 has cast doubt on the Gulf’s stability, especially as it seems that the American security umbrella can no longer be taken for granted
Trump II and the World / Politique étrangère, Vol. 90, No. 3, 2025
Does Trumpism exist? And if so, how can its ideology be characterized, given the myriad currents underpinning it—from populism and the Christian Right to paleolibertarianism and technolibertarianism? Does it embody a genuine worldview that informs its diplomatic actions? An obsessive drive to overturn long-standing practices, alliances, and commitments deemed “detrimental” to American interests, coupled with a fixation on transactional, one-off deals, appears to serve as its de facto strategy—hence the widespread weakening of allied ties. Observers are equally at a loss to discern an economic strategy, and above all reluctant to anticipate the possible outcomes of its contradictory maneuvers.
Trump II and Asia: The Wind is Picking Up…
The Indo-Pacific is a priority for the second Trump administration, which sees China as the United States' principal rival. However, Donald Trump began his second term in a rather disconcerting fashion by taking a harder line with Washington's traditional partners. He then provoked hostilities with Beijing, sparking a trade war even more intense than during his first term. The Chinese authorities have no intention of taking it lying down.
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