Asians were dominated and sometimes humiliated by Westerners during the last two centuries. Today, they look to the future with confidence. In 2050, the world’s two leading powers are likely to be China and India. The great Asian Renaissance will lead to geopolitical upheavals. China-US tensions are already visible and conflicts may emerge between Asian powers. Yet the clash of civilizations is not inevitable.

This article was published in Politique étrangère in 1979, the year the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) was founded. In it, Raymond Aron reviews important events of the previous decade, such as the Vietnam War. He particularly reflects on the place of law, morality, force and national interest in international relations. Related topics, like the right to intervene and the responsibility to protect, are implicitly included in this article.

NATO has proved its renewed usefulness and is today fully engaged, well beyond its former frontiers, wherever its interests and those of its members are threatened.

The Alliance cannot avoid a strategic debate about its role, missions and resources. This may be painful, but it will ensure clarity and prepare the Alliance for future challenges.