The European Space Model: Renewing Ambition in a Changing Strategic Landscape
The European space model, based on science, cooperation and trade, is now being undermined by changes in international relations and the economic upheavals brought about by New Space. In light of the war in Ukraine and American disengagement, Europe needs to rethink its strategy by adding a fourth pillar dedicated to defense, in order to strengthen its sovereignty and deter possible aggression against the continent.
In a time of geostrategic upheaval, Ariane 6’s first operational launch of a military satellite provided some relief for the European space program whose model has faced serious challenges in recent years.
A “space model” may refer to the set of principles, strategies, institutional and industrial structures that guide the development of space activities. It embodies a specific approach, shaped by political, economic and scientific history, as well as the ambitions of states and supranational institutions in a constantly changing international context. The strategies underpinning the European space model are thus very different from other space powers like the United States (US) or Russia.
This unique model has proven its worth over its sixty years of existence, establishing a space policy geared towards civilian development and founded on three main pillars: science, cooperation and trade. European advances in space have turned the continent into one of the world’s leading space powers, with a dynamic and innovative sector.
However, recent events have weakened these three pillars. International developments have called into question long-standing cooperation efforts. In the commercial sector, the emergence of New Space has severely affected the European industry, causing a deep crisis that is still unfolding. Science is also suffering from these developments, as well as from weakening multilateralism on climate issues.
In the wake of the brutal decisions taken by the Trump administration regarding support for Ukraine, Europe needs to consider whether a fourth pillar, dedicated to the defense of the continent, should be established. Such an initiative would help to address the existential emergency caused by US disengagement in the face of Russian aggression and, in the longer term, to guard against over-dependence on an unpredictable partner. This endeavor would serve to stabilize the European space model and strengthen its historical foundations.
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The European Space Model: Renewing Ambition in a Changing Strategic Landscape
Author(s)
Paul WOHRER
Research Fellow, Space Program, Center for Geopolitics of Technology, Ifri
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Space Program
Space has become a crucial theme in the main international think tanks’ research activities as it entails important strategic, economic, and technological issues.
Since 2001, Ifri has integrated space in its research, notably by ensuring that the political dimension of scientific and human exploration programs is emphasized, and by supporting reflections on the Code of Conduct for Outter Space Activities.
Today, as part of its research agenda, Ifri mobilizes several of its centers and programs to transversally tackle the theme of space, through three main inputs:
- the competition of powers, driven by the Sino-American rivalry;
- critical points related to mastery of space, such as the issue of autonomous access to space or the mega-constellations necessary for the digital revolution;
- these developments’ challenges for Europe and its status as a space power.
Since the Summer 2020, Ifri has been coordinating a tripartite European Space Governance Initiative, together with two other renowned European think tanks: the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (DGAP) in Germany and the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Italy.
Center for Geopolitics of Technology
Artificial intelligence (AI), 5G, cybersecurity, robotics, semiconductors, space... Technology, especially in the digital domain, is now deeply affecting all human activities and, by extension, international relations. The resulting political, strategic, economic and social issues manifest themselves at multiple political scales involving states, international organizations and private companies. The dynamics of international competition and cooperation are transformed.
It is to respond to these challenges that Ifri is launching the Geopolitics of Technology program in the fall of 2020, which builds on the work it already carried out on these subjects for several years.
The program takes a resolutely European approach to international issues related to so-called critical technologies. Its work is organized around four cross-cutting themes:
- Power: redistributions of power caused by new technologies, in particular digital; military and dual innovations; transformations of international competition;
- Sovereignty: definition of critical infrastructures and technologies; industrial and innovation policies in strategic sectors; opportunities and risks associated with international value chains;
- Governance: ethical and legal issues; interactions between companies, states, international organizations and users; public-private partnerships and GovTech;
- Society: political and social impacts of technological innovations; risks and opportunities for the future of work, health, the fight against climate change; connectivity and economic development.
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