EU GHG Emission Targets: "Mind the gap" Actuelles de l'Ifri, June 2012
While the actual price of carbon emissions in the EU market is at the extremely low level of €6 per tonne, it is crucial to track European emission trends and to compare them with the commitments of the EU-15 under the Kyoto Protocol and the targets set by the EU-27 for 2020.
The present memorandum aims to summarize the findings of this review. It deals with the emission trends in Europe, intentionally excluding the European instruments which contribute to lower emissions outside Europe (such as the Clean Development Mechanism) that can always be debated.
The conclusions of the analysis are clear:
1. the EU-15 is on the right track to fulfil its commitments under the Kyoto Protocol,
2. the EU-27 is still not sure of achieving its 2020 targets and if it does, it will be thanks to the collapse of economic growth generated by the economic crisis of 2009 and its aftermath,
3. given the present state of progress, the IFRI Centre for Energy considers that it would not be reasonable to raise the target for cutting emission from 20% to 30%, by 2020.
Jacques LESOURNE