A Victory to End All Victory: Iraq after the Islamic State Notes de l'Ifri, July 2017
The offensive on Mosul against Islamic State crystallises all of the political, social and security issues which determine the future of the Iraqi state.
Will victory over the jihadists be sufficient to pacify Iraq and inject new momentum into its mainly dysfunctional political system? Reform of the system, which is paralysed by increasingly aggressive militias and the actions of a predatory political class attached to the status quo against a background of popular demands, is proving difficult. Intra- and inter-community tensions complicate the issues, between Shiite supremacy, Sunni isolation, and Kurdish rifts. Foreign powers, particularly the United States/Iran duopoly, could benefit from this breakdown. Ethnic and religious tensions, territorial fragmentation and the confrontation of international interests are all present. The Iraq of tomorrow is unchartered territory.
