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Europe Bracing for a Tough Winter: Prospects for Tighter Oil and Gas Markets
Summer witnessed a sharp escalation in the Russia-Europe confrontation, amidst continued partial closure of Hormuz and major extreme weather events. Oil and gas prices are high, and the price and supply outlooks for Europe this winter are very challenging for oil products, LNG and possibly, electricity markets which see growing contamination from the Hormuz crisis and growing risks of disbalances. Moreover, the phase-out of Russian gas supplies comes with renewed risks.
One Month Ahead of the Midterms: Where Is Trump’s America Headed?
The 24th edition of the Ifri Americas Programme Annual Conference will examine the dynamics at play in the United States and their implications for Europe and the transatlantic relationship. will examine the dynamics at play in the United States and their implications for Europe and the transatlantic relationship.
The EU in a World of Economic Warfare: Trade, Geopolitics, and the Battle for Economic Sovereignty
The international trading system has become a primary theatre of geopolitical competition. Tariffs, sanctions, and technology controls have replaced dialogue as the default instruments of economic relations.
Navigating Uncertainty: Asian Powers amid US-China Competition
As relations between China and the United States oscillate between hardening competition and strategic stability, regional powers in Asia must adapt to greater uncertainty. The increasing weaponization of trade and economic dependencies, the rise of disruptive technologies, and the ever-growing risk of armed conflict are among the destabilizing factors shaping the region’s trajectory.
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Europe Bracing for a Tough Winter: Prospects for Tighter Oil and Gas Markets
Summer witnessed a sharp escalation in the Russia-Europe confrontation, amidst continued partial closure of Hormuz and major extreme weather events. Oil and gas prices are high, and the price and supply outlooks for Europe this winter are very challenging for oil products, LNG and possibly, electricity markets which see growing contamination from the Hormuz crisis and growing risks of disbalances. Moreover, the phase-out of Russian gas supplies comes with renewed risks.
Nuclear Sharing in Europe: A Contested Policy That Endures
Since the end of the Cold War, the number of US nuclear weapons stationed in Europe has fallen more than seventy-fold, yet their presence in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey remains a quiet pillar of NATO's deterrence posture. This "nuclear sharing" arrangement, central to the Alliance since its founding, has long been contested by public opinion, political parties, and civil society across Europe, without ever being abandoned by host governments. This paradox lies at the heart of the seminar: why does such an unpopular policy persist?
The Role of Intelligence in Political Decision Making
As part of the intelligence-focused BBS, organized in partnership with the Intelligence College in Europe, Ifri welcomes Mr. Philipp Wolff, Coordinator of the German Federal Intelligence services at the Federal Chancellery.
Geopolitical Stakes of the New Moon Race
As the United States, China, and India solidify their lunar ambitions, Europe is still seeking to define its stance: should it be a reliable partner or an autonomous strategic player? This conference will examine the stakes of this new race to the Moon and Europe’s interest in asserting itself as a lunar power through partnerships, industrial ambitions, and whether its participation in the new lunar race serves as a lever for strategic autonomy and internal cohesion, or an illustration of its dependence.
Managing nuclear escalation: what's in intrawar deterrence?
Since the return of high-intensity warfare in Europe and the rise of strategic tensions in the Indo-Pacific, the issue of managing escalation between nuclear powers has taken center stage in U.S. strategic thinking and, to a lesser extent, in the European one.
"Paris Dialogue" - First Edition, June 2026
The first edition of the “Paris Dialogue” took place on 8 and 9 June. The initiative was launched by Ifri, France’s leading think tank, and AGDA, a center of excellence based in Abu Dhabi. It is co-chaired by Thierry de Montbrial, executive chairman of Ifri, and Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to H.H. the President of the United Arab Emirates, and deputy chairman of the board of trustees of AGDA.
AI and Systemic Risks: A Dialogue Between Geoffrey Hinton and Arthur Mensch
The Ifri Center for Geopolitics of Technology is pleased to welcome two leading figures in AI: Geoffrey Hinton (2024 Nobel Prize in Physics), often referred to as the “godfather of AI”; and Arthur Mensch (CEO of Mistral AI), a key player in the emerging European AI landscape.
Brussels, Germany, France and Italy Facing the Energy and Industrial Crises: Coordinated or Diverging Trajectories?
Amidst soaring defense spending, higher borrowing costs, erosion of energy intensive industries, renewed energy price hikes and possibly physical shortages, the European Union and its Member States are again struggling to stabilize the European economies. Governments are tempted by uncoordinated, short-term moves while in Brussels, there is a struggle between the “more of the same” and the “scrap it largely” approaches to the transition.
The United States and Europe Adrift: Transatlantic Security in the Trump Era
Against an international backdrop marked by the war in Ukraine, Russia’s emergence as a lasting threat to Europe, and an uncertain U.S. commitment to the Old Continent, questions about the future of the transatlantic relationship are mounting.
18th Edition of the World Policy Conference, Chantilly, France
Between fragmentation and interdependence: rethinking global governance
Created by Thierry de Montbrial, founder and executive chairman of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), the World Policy Conference (WPC) will hold its 18th edition from April 24 to 26, 2026, at Domaine Les Fontaines in Gouvieux, Chantilly.
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Europe Bracing for a Tough Winter: Prospects for Tighter Oil and Gas Markets
Summer witnessed a sharp escalation in the Russia-Europe confrontation, amidst continued partial closure of Hormuz and major extreme weather events. Oil and gas prices are high, and the price and supply outlooks for Europe this winter are very challenging for oil products, LNG and possibly, electricity markets which see growing contamination from the Hormuz crisis and growing risks of disbalances. Moreover, the phase-out of Russian gas supplies comes with renewed risks. While weather and climate are major uncertain forces of high impact, this discussion will build on the assumption that geopolitics are likely to worsen further and explore how the EU could brace for a storm.
Nuclear Sharing in Europe: A Contested Policy That Endures
Since the end of the Cold War, the number of US nuclear weapons stationed in Europe has fallen more than seventy-fold, yet their presence in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey remains a quiet pillar of NATO's deterrence posture. This "nuclear sharing" arrangement, central to the Alliance since its founding, has long been contested by public opinion, political parties, and civil society across Europe, without ever being abandoned by host governments. This paradox lies at the heart of the seminar: why does such an unpopular policy persist?
The Role of Intelligence in Political Decision Making
As part of the intelligence-focused BBS, organized in partnership with the Intelligence College in Europe, Ifri welcomes Mr. Philipp Wolff, Coordinator of the German Federal Intelligence services at the Federal Chancellery.
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Ifri in Pictures
Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2026, Ifri partners with over 90 French and international companies and organizations.