2019-2029: The World in 10 Years
The last four decades have witnessed the profound transformation of the very foundations of the international system: the globalization of trade, technical revolutions, the upheaval of the hierarchy of powers, the emergence of China, the explosion of the Middle-East, the mutation of conflicts and threats, climate concerns, etc.
This special issue of Politique étrangère celebrates the 40th anniversary of IFRI. It includes contributions by the best international specialists to clarify and shed light on the major trends affecting today’s effervescent world: Where is it taking us? What may happen on this global stage, in all its parts, over the next ten years?
How far is the world going to be “de-westernized”? Does modernity concentrate power, or dilute it? How should the advances of the international financial system be evaluated, and what are their limits? Can poverty be reduced further? Will the energy transition be successful? What forms will international violence take? What will the world’s population look like in 2029? Are new technologies redesigning new geopolitics? Is global trade hesitating between trade war or multilateralism? Is Europe undoing itself, or reconstructing itself? What is the economic and political future of Africa in all its pluralities? Is the Middle-East doomed to breakdown? Will Asia be the center of tomorrow’s world?
How is the world of 2029 being sketched out today?
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Between Concentration and Dispersion: A Promising Future for Power Relations, by Thomas Gomart
The Waning of Universalism, by Chantal Delsol
2029: TOWARD A NEW WORLD?
The Future of the International Monetary and Financial System, by Jean-Claude Trichet
International Trade Disagreements: Beyond Trump, by Sébastien Jean
Poverty and Inequality through 2030, by Ravi Kanbur
Possible Energy Transitions through 2029, by Adnan Z. Amin
Wars in the Next Decade, by Lawrence Freedman
After the Demographic Explosion, by Hervé Le Bras
When Technology Shapes the World..., by Jared Cohen
2029: WORLDS ADRIFT
Europe in 10 Years, by Nicole Gnesotto
The Africas of 2029, by Alioune Sall
The Middle East in 2029, by Fawaz A. Gerges
2029, the Great Asian Renaissance, by Kishore Mahbubani
A VIEW FROM HISTORY
Between the Lines of Questionable Battles, by Raymond Aron
This content is available in French : "L'éditorial de Politique étrangère, vol. 84, n° 1, printemps 2019"
This content is available in French : "Le dossier de presse de Politique étrangère, vol. 84, n° 1, printemps 2019"
Find out more
Discover all our analyses
Digital Revolution, Economic Upheaval
The digital revolution is profoundly shaking up the economy, with the impact felt well beyond the digital sector itself. Indeed, it is transforming the very concept of value creation. Artificial intelligence represents a new phase that requires a colossal investment in physical infrastructure like data centers. Europe failed to grasp the scale of these changes in time, but it does have certain advantages.
Germany: The Return of Military Service?
Abolished in 2011, conscription returned to Germany in 2025, albeit in a new, voluntary form. The decision in 2011 was broadly supported. Public opinion, like the political sphere, is more divided now. The reintroduction of voluntary service for men reflects the demands of the geopolitical landscape and the Bundeswehr’s need for troops. It remains to be seen whether the model chosen will fulfill the requirements of defense chiefs.
Foreword
In this special issue of Politique étrangère devoted to the proceedings of the conference organized by Ifri on April 10, 2019, in the Grand Amphitheater of the Sorbonne, on the occasion of its fortieth anniversary, read the foreword by Thierry de Montbrial, founder and president of Ifri.
Europe and Africa
In this special issue of Politique étrangère devoted to the proceedings of the conference organized by Ifri on April 10, 2019, in the Grand Amphitheater of the Sorbonne, on the occasion of its fortieth anniversary, discover the conversation between Louise Mushikiwabo, Secretary General of La Francophonie and Thierrry de Montbrial, Founder and Executive Chairman of Ifri.