2019-2029: The World in 10 Years
The last four decades have witnessed the profound transformation of the very foundations of the international system: the globalization of trade, technical revolutions, the upheaval of the hierarchy of powers, the emergence of China, the explosion of the Middle-East, the mutation of conflicts and threats, climate concerns, etc.
This special issue of Politique étrangère celebrates the 40th anniversary of IFRI. It includes contributions by the best international specialists to clarify and shed light on the major trends affecting today’s effervescent world: Where is it taking us? What may happen on this global stage, in all its parts, over the next ten years?
How far is the world going to be “de-westernized”? Does modernity concentrate power, or dilute it? How should the advances of the international financial system be evaluated, and what are their limits? Can poverty be reduced further? Will the energy transition be successful? What forms will international violence take? What will the world’s population look like in 2029? Are new technologies redesigning new geopolitics? Is global trade hesitating between trade war or multilateralism? Is Europe undoing itself, or reconstructing itself? What is the economic and political future of Africa in all its pluralities? Is the Middle-East doomed to breakdown? Will Asia be the center of tomorrow’s world?
How is the world of 2029 being sketched out today?
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Between Concentration and Dispersion: A Promising Future for Power Relations, by Thomas Gomart (Entre concentration et dispersion : le bel avenir de la puissance)
The Waning of Universalism, by Chantal Delsol (Le crépuscule de l'universel)
2029: TOWARD A NEW WORLD?
The Future of the International Monetary and Financial System, by Jean-Claude Trichet
International Trade Disagreements: Beyond Trump, by Sébastien Jean
Poverty and Inequality through 2030, by Ravi Kanbur
Possible Energy Transitions through 2029, by Adnan Z. Amin
Wars in the Next Decade, by Lawrence Freedman
After the Demographic Explosion, by Hervé Le Bras
When Technology Shapes the World..., by Jared Cohen
2029: WORLDS ADRIFT
Europe in 10 Years, by Nicole Gnesotto
The Africas of 2029, by Alioune Sall
The Middle East in 2029, by Fawaz A. Gerges
2029, the Great Asian Renaissance, by Kishore Mahbubani
A VIEW FROM HISTORY
Between the Lines of Questionable Battles, by Raymond Aron
This content is available in French : "L'éditorial de Politique étrangère, vol. 84, n° 1, printemps 2019"
This content is available in French : "Le dossier de presse de Politique étrangère, vol. 84, n° 1, printemps 2019"
Find out more
Discover all our analyses
Between the Lines of Questionable Battles
This article was published in Politique étrangère in 1979, the year the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) was founded. In it, Raymond Aron reviews important events of the previous decade, such as the Vietnam War. He particularly reflects on the place of law, morality, force and national interest in international relations. Related topics, like the right to intervene and the responsibility to protect, are implicitly included in this article.
A Vibrant and Flexible Alliance
NATO has proved its renewed usefulness and is today fully engaged, well beyond its former frontiers, wherever its interests and those of its members are threatened.
NATO: From Washington (1949) to Strasbourg/Kehl (2009)
The Alliance cannot avoid a strategic debate about its role, missions and resources. This may be painful, but it will ensure clarity and prepare the Alliance for future challenges.
Towards a Security Web
There is no global mechanism that can guarantee security effectively in the face of the growing threat of political chaos, stemming from the recent political awakening of humanity. There is no global mechanism that can guarantee security effectively in the face of the growing threat of political chaos, stemming from the recent political awakening of humanity.