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The Caucasus: a Hotbed of Terrorism in Metamorphosis

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Russie.Eurasie.Visions
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Les mutations du terrorisme au Caucase du Nord
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Since summer 2009, instability in the eastern part of the North Caucasus has escalated, a security threat against which the Russian leadership cannot find a strategy. Despite a maximum-intensity counterinsurgency campaign, the rebels have been able to expand their support base, staging terrorist attacks in Moscow.

Corps analyses

The Domodedovo airport of 24 January 2011 is just the latest example. President Medvedev is trying to combine sustained repression with economic development, but his "soft power" approach has little credibility. Increased transfers from the federal budget have created a system of administrative corruption, which now constitutes a greater obstacle to private investment than the high risk of violence. In fact, rampant corruption has become the major driver for instability because public anger cannot find political expression, feeding the growth of underground Islamic networks that often resort to violence. The inefficacy of Medvedev's strategy increases the probability that the 2011-2012 election cycle in Russia could be suddenly and profoundly influenced by terrorism originating in the North Caucasus. Yet, another attempt to mobilize the country through a decisive, centralizing leader might propel Russia towards a spontaneous Soviet-style implosion.

 

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978-2-86592-862-0

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The Caucasus: a Hotbed of Terrorism in Metamorphosis

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Author(s)
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Pavel BAEV

Pavel BAEV

Intitulé du poste

Associate Research Fellow, Russia/Eurasia Center, Ifri

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Russie, Eurasie, Carte
Russia/Eurasia Center
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Founded in 2005 within Ifri, the Russia/Eurasia Center conducts research and organizes debates on Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. Its goal is to understand and anticipate the evolution of this complex and rapidly changing geographical area in order to enrich public discourse in France and Europe and to assist in strategic, political, and economic decision-making.

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War as Social Elevator: The Socioeconomic Impact of Russian Military Keynesianism

Date de publication
19 June 2025
Accroche

In order to finance its war effort, the Russian state has spent substantial sums of money and implemented a form of “military Keynesianism” that is transforming society at both the socioeconomic and cultural levels. This has partially rebalanced the wide disparities in wealth, levels of consumption, and social prestige in Russian society by granting significant financial and symbolic advantages to peripheral Russia, which has long been overlooked by the central government. 

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The Contradictory Impacts of Western Sanctions on Economic Relations between Russia and Sub-Saharan Africa

Date de publication
28 May 2025
Accroche

How does Russia maintain economic ties with Africa despite Western sanctions? An analysis of investments, trade, and the circumvention strategies deployed by Moscow.

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The Caspian Sea as an Emerging Energy Hub : Potentials and Limitations

Date de publication
07 February 2025
Accroche

This report analyzes the prospects of the Caspian Sea region — and its key actors except for Russia and Iran — becoming an important energy hub serving the needs of the European Union (EU). 

Sergey SUKHANKIN
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The European Union's Strategic Test in Georgia

Date de publication
27 January 2025
Accroche

The political crisis brewing in Georgia is of an existential nature for the country. What is at stake is Georgia's future as a democratic and sovereign European nation (EU).

Teona GIUASHVILI

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Les mutations du terrorisme au Caucase du Nord

The Caucasus: a Hotbed of Terrorism in Metamorphosis