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Unconventional Gas: A Game Changer for Transport Too?

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Unconventional Gas: A Game Changer for Transport Too?
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A new technology trend, the development of natural gas vehicles, is emerging in the transport sector. 

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While not new this technology is now being simultaneously revived by the discovery of significant amounts of unconventional gas, by the rise of oil prices, and by the decreased confidence in the sustainability of nuclear technology (and subsequent rising electricity prices in Europe). Natural gas could provide a path to a lower carbon intensive transport sector in both developed and developing countries. Gas is cheaper and less polluting than oil. It emits significantly less local pollutants than diesel and less CO2 than gasoline. Historically present in Italy, South America, Iran and Pakistan natural gas vehicles are emerging in other countries: in some European countries, in the United States, in the Chinese provinces of Shaanxi and Henan, and in India. Asia and developing countries are expected to be responsible for a large share of the car market growth in the next years and consequently for a significant share of transport CO2 emissions. The adoption of a given technology there could impact global markets and global CO2 emissions significantly. While the trend is still loose, this paper responds to the possibility that this technology will expand: what would it imply? would it compete with the development of the electric vehicle? is it desirable?

It appears that the advantages of natural gas vehicles are not as clear cut as they seem. Environmentally, they are beneficial only to countries with little -if no- CO2 emissions standards. Several issues including the development of costly infrastructures are likely to raise costs. Natural gas vehicles development could also slow down the roll out of electric vehicles, hence delaying hopes of smoothing the integration of renewables into the power grid through the use of car batteries" storage capacity. But the main concern is the availability of cheap gas itself, on the basis of which this technology shift could take place. Markets for gas are tightening, price increases have already been announced in many places, and the development of unconventional resources is still surrounded by uncertainties in regards to its cost and timeframe. But even more, gas might be more efficiently used for power generation. The trend is however still nascent. The targeted markets are niche markets, and many bottlenecks including the determination of some governments to promote the electric vehicle instead, would have to be overcome before variants of natural gas transportation technologies can sustainably and significantly secure a large share of vehicle fleets.

 

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978-2-86592-899-6

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Unconventional Gas: A Game Changer for Transport Too?

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Author(s)
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Climate & Energy
Center for Energy & Climate
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Ifri's Energy and Climate Center carries out activities and research on the geopolitical and geoeconomic issues of energy transitions such as energy security, competitiveness, control of value chains, and acceptability. Specialized in the study of European energy/climate policies as well as energy markets in Europe and around the world, its work also focuses on the energy and climate strategies of major powers such as the United States, China or India. It offers recognized expertise, enriched by international collaborations and events, particularly in Paris and Brussels.

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The Strategic Dimension of Power System Flexibility: Opportunities in Europe

Date de publication
30 April 2025
Accroche

The European Union has embarked on an energy transition aimed primarily at replacing fossil fuels by electrifying demand. 

Cédric PHILIBERT Arthur de LASSUS
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Date de publication
19 May 2025
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The United Kingdom (UK) has traditionally been an example for its neighbours and the world in developing ambitious, innovative and effective energy policies. 

Rémy CARBONNIER
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India’s Green Hydrogen Strategy in Action: Policy Actions, Market Insights, and Global Opportunities

Date de publication
24 April 2025
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India is poised to remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy, and this rapid growth is driving a sharp rise in energy demand. As the most populous country on the planet, India urgently needs to decarbonize its energy systems.

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Water in Mexico: an Emergency that Will Wait

Date de publication
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Accroche

Access to water is already and will become increasingly problematic for Mexican economic actors due to the progressive scarcity of the resource resulting from climate change, a geographical distribution that does not coincide with that of the population or economic activity, and management that has so far been far too lax. 

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Unconventional Gas: A Game Changer for Transport Too?
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Unconventional Gas: A Game Changer for Transport Too?

Unconventional Gas: A Game Changer for Transport Too?