In the United States, the return to nuclear power seems to be underway and confirmed, with a rare bipartisan consensus and, on paper, an ambitious strategy to quadruple installed capacity by 2050 and return to export markets. However, the road ahead remains fraught with obstacles: the absence - to date - of structuring construction decisions, regulatory and budgetary uncertainties, and a certain lack of clarity from the Trump administration on the realism of the prospect of building several large nuclear reactors. The US technology sector, with its growing electricity consumption, could nonetheless catalyze this renaissance, as witnessed by the partnerships between Microsoft, Google, Amazon and developers of small modular reactors (SMRs), whose third-generation models are really being pushed ahead, complemented by the growing interest of digital giants in large nuclear reactors. Meanwhile, electricity demand is fueled by gas. On the export front, for the time being, the US nuclear industry has made Europe its preferred target, while the agreement with Korean nuclear challenger KHNP is reshuffling the cards amid South Korea's growing ambitions, confirming its status as a global exporter of nuclear technologies.

In Europe, nuclear power still accounts for 24% of electricity production, thus remaining the leading source of electricity. However, its development remains hampered by still-cautious European policies and regulatory obstacles, in contrast to proactive national policies in a majority of European Union (EU) countries, and an industry that is gearing up its human resources and industrial capacity. The emergence of the EU Nuclear Alliance in February 2023, which now brings together fifteen member states, marks a significant turning point towards better-coordinated collective approaches.

At the origin of this political dynamic, now taken onboard by many EU countries, France, a historical and central nuclear industrial player, is faced with the challenge of reconstituting its industrial nuclear ecosystem against the backdrop of weakened industrial capacities. Clarifying the chain of responsibility between government and industry on the one hand, and between industrial players on the other, and stimulating competition to boost the sector remains a challenge.

This revival is even more difficult because, unlike in the United States, it is not being driven by electricity demand, which is lackluster throughout Europe. This central fact further complicates the business case for investments, which are nonetheless increasingly urgent in the context of European energy policy that is weakening the power system and is compromising the adequacy of electricity supply and demand.
In this context of effervescence mixed with uncertainty, SMRs partly crystallize the hopes for the sector’s revival. Beyond announcements and marketing effects, they are introducing healthy competition into a sector that needs to innovate, and are attracting investment in R&D. However, their deployment depends on Europe's ability to create the conditions for a more unified market, which implies raising the question of greater harmonization of certification procedures, developing appropriate financing mechanisms and, finally, putting end-users - essentially energy- and electro-intensive industries - and their needs at the center of the system in order to stimulate financial and industrial partnerships to bring projects to fruition. This approach must in no way lead to overlooking the essential issue of optimizing and extending the existing fleet, which Europe must rapidly decide to support with ambitious policies.

The future of Western nuclear power, large or small, will depend on the ability of public and private players to forge strategic alliances, finance innovation and rebuild an industry capable of delivering projects on time and on budget. The transformation, to some extent, of a project-based industry into a more standardized and industrialized product industry, via modularity and off-site construction, is the key to this necessary renaissance.
 

The full version of the study is only available in French.