Re-evaluating Copper Supply: The Crucial Role of Technology

They claim that as ore grades decline, mining will require more fossil fuel, leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions that could undermine decarbonization efforts. Additionally, they warn that expanding mining operations may result in higher freshwater consumption, waste production, and unacceptable environmental degradation.

A closer look at mineral exploration and mining suggests, however, that these concerns may be overstated. Advances in mining technology have enabled the efficient extraction of lower-grade deposits without major increases in energy use. As illustrated by the case of copper, mineral reserves and resources have constantly increased over time. While mining has environmental impacts, its contribution to land use, water consumption and loss of biodiversity remains relatively small. Metal costs have increased but remained broadly affordable.

The demand for metals will significantly increase as the energy transition combines with the digitalisation of the economy and an ever-increasing energy demand from developing countries. In the case of copper, the expected growth rate does not sensibly depart from the last decades. Reserves and resources are large enough to sustain that growth with only a small reduction in ore grade and could further increase if prices increase. A breadth of technical innovations will likely ensure that the specific energy consumption of copper mining does not increase, while the ongoing electrification of mines and decarbonization of electricity generation will ensure a continuous decrease in specific greenhouse gas emissions.

The real risks for the energy transition are the insufficient rate of increase in metal mining, including copper, and the geopolitical risks associated with high levels of concentration of mining activities and moreover in refining for a series of critical materials.