Russian Foreign Policy: the Unpredictable Fickleness Thomas Gomart, Politique étrangère, Special Issue 'Russie: enjeux internationaux et intérieurs', September 2007.

This article has been published for the first time in the 1:2006 issue of Politique étrangère.Abstract

A close study of what is a wide reaching foreign policy leads to a number of contradictory conclusions. It is necessary to acknowledge that Vladimir Putin, despite having to overcome a number of hurdles, has managed to expand Russia's options, even if his strategic choices have not always made sense. This has resulted in a measure of uncertainty which favors tactics over strategy. The Russian president has defined a policy which could be encapsulated in the following play-off: maintaining freedom to maneuver so as to do nothing. This play-off will be analyzed through the prism of historical constants (an outline of the theaters, strategic constructs, and energy resources) and of current issues (Iran, diplomatic positions, and regional integration projects). Thomas Gomart is Head of the Russian/NIS programme at Ifri and coordinates the Task Force about future of relations EU/Russia. His academic and professional background is closely related to this area. He is teaching at the Military School of Saint-Cyr.