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"Playing with Molecules": The Italian Approach to Libya

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This paper aims to analyse the many ways in which Italy is trying to play with the many Libyan “molecules”, the different parties of a fragmented and collapsing country, and the possible implications of the strategy adopted by the Gentiloni government and its Minister of Interior, Marco Minniti, towards the country and the migratory crisis.

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Rome engaged a patient strategy of “mending” with the two main national actors and with a plethora of local players, tribes, municipalities, city-states, and militias struggling in the quest for power. For Italy, a stable Libya is crucial to manage the flow of migrants leaving the country and crossing the Strait of Sicily, to ensure energy provisions, and to manage licit and illicit economic activities in the Mediterranean. Trying to assess the resilience of this strategy is of the utmost importance in order to have a measure of which kind of responsibility Rome assumed over the past two years and what kind of accountability would be inherited by the incoming government. Indeed, the “molecular” approach carried out by the Gentiloni Government in the country should be viewed as a double-edged strategy: while the migration flow dramatically shrank over the past months, economic relations recover and informal cooperation forges new spaces for dialogue, promoting ambiguous players, without a comprehensive approach and a clear political vision, could undermine prospects for peace in the country, Italian national interests and the future of Italy-Libya relations.

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978-2-36567-861-2

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"Playing with Molecules": The Italian Approach to Libya

Decoration
Author(s)
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Süleymaniye Mosque, Istanbul, Türkiye
Turkey/Middle East Program
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Ifri's Turkey/Middle East Program aims to provide expertise on the trends and developments in politics, societies and economies across the region.

The programme has the following objectives:

  • Proposing a new approach towards the MENA region through an analysis of local, regional, and international dynamics with the potential to guide and influence new policies.
  • Highlighting the role of foreign powers which have traditionally been present in the region and analyzing the new role taken on by emerging countries ;
  • Anticipating new directions and outlooks in each country.
  • Interpreting risks and potentials and putting forward new templates for analysis.

The programme has built a dense network of researchers and experts who provide expertise on the MENA region and working together on a range of crosscutting themes.

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Turkey and France - Allies or Rivals: Opportunities to be Seized

Date de publication
24 June 2025
Accroche

As international relations have become increasingly unpredictable, the quest is to find a semblance of normality. Alliances are shifting as interests are changing. The so-called order established after the Second World War is being shattered by those who have given so much to create it. Global relations are being transformed by countries that wish to follow the rules and others that want to circumvent or ignore them. In this uncertain environment, it is therefore all the more crucial to find stable allies.

Selim YENEL
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RAMSES 2025. Between Powers and Powerlessness

Date de publication
04 September 2024
Accroche

Never before have there been so many powers able to upset the international balance of power, and never before have the dominant powers seemed so powerless to counter the fragmentation of the world.

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Out of Thin Air but More than a Mirage: The Politics of Saudi Arabia's Nascent Music Industry

Date de publication
18 December 2024
Accroche

This study critically examines Saudi Arabia’s nascent music industry, which is promoted as a key element of Vision 2030, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s strategic framework to diversify the kingdom’s economy. It explores how state-led investments in music and entertainment intersect with authoritarian governance. The author neither dismisses these investments as conspicuous spending nor reproduces an alarmist narrative of impending cultural imperialism. The article takes a political sociology approach to understand how Saudi entertainment plans consolidate domestic power and reshape regional cultural landscapes.

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Hostage diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The case of Europeans detained in Iran

Date de publication
13 December 2024
Accroche

The so-called hostage diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran refers to a political and diplomatic strategy in which Tehran uses the detention of Western nationals, dual citizens, or Iranian citizens residing in Europe, Australia, or the United States as leverage in diplomatic negotiations. This practice aims to exert pressure to secure political, economic, or diplomatic concessions as part of Tehran’s asymmetric response strategy. Hostage diplomacy remains a controversial yet effective tool from the perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran, given its context of economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation.

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"Playing with Molecules": The Italian Approach to Libya