Energy Relations between Russia and China: Playing Chess with the Dragon
Post-sanctions Russia-China energy relations: what expectations?
Russia's relationship with China has a long and complex history, catalysed by the lengthy border between the two countries, the complementarity of their economies and the ambitions of both to be seen as key global geo-political actors. Following periods of tension and friendship in the Soviet era, when the two communist states often struggled to find a mutual understanding, the post-Soviet era has seen a more complicated relationship develop based as much on economic reality as political ideology.
Russia's economy has suffered collapse and recovery, often driven by oil price volatility, and has yet to achieve much-craved stability and consistent growth. China, meanwhile, has genuinely become an economic superpower, having enjoyed growth rates in the 7-15% per annum range since the mid-1990s and has now become the second largest economy in the world in terms of nominal GDP.
China's rapid economic growth, which has largely been based on industrial expansion, has also seen it become, since 2009, the world's largest energy consumer, with total primary energy demand in 2015 of just over 3 billion tonnes of oil equivalent. The geographical accident that China is also located next to the world's largest owner of fossil fuel reserves means that a commercial relationship based on energy was bound to emerge, and the development of ties between the two countries based on oil, gas and coal trade has generated significant interest and discussion. In particular over the past decade, as Chinese energy imports have increased rapidly while Russia has sought new markets for its key commodities, the issues of inter-dependency, reliance and security have been at the forefront of the debate.
This paper aims to contribute to the literature on the Russia-China energy relationship by providing detailed evidence of activity in the post-sanctions period, a comprehensive review of recent negotiations and transactions, and an assessment of the current state of the balance of bargaining power and cooperation between the two countries.
This content is available at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies' website: Energy Relations between Russia and China - Playing Chess with the Dragon
Available in:
Regions and themes
Share
Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programs
Russia/Eurasia Center
Founded in 2005 within Ifri, the Russia/Eurasia Center conducts research and organizes debates on Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. Its goal is to understand and anticipate the evolution of this complex and rapidly changing geographical area in order to enrich public discourse in France and Europe and to assist in strategic, political, and economic decision-making.
Find out more
Discover all our analyses
How the Russian Army Changed its Concept of War, 1993-2022
The traditional and high-intensity war that has occurred in Ukraine since Russia decided to invade raises a key issue: did post-soviet Russian strategic thought really prepare Russia for waging this war?
Russia's Nuclear Deterrence Put to the Test by the War in Ukraine
From the outset of its “special military operation” (SVO) against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russia, which possesses one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals, has adopted aggressive deterrence measures and a resolutely menacing rhetorical stance.
Moldova's Crucial Parliamentary Election. What's at Stake?
On the occasion of Moldova’s National Day, August 27, 2025, Chișinău hosted a high-level European delegation composed of Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk, who sought to reaffirm their support for the country’s sovereignty and pro-European course. This unprecedented and highly symbolic visit took place at a pivotal moment. Moldova is preparing for decisive parliamentary elections on September 28, whose stakes extend far beyond the national framework.
War as Social Elevator: The Socioeconomic Impact of Russian Military Keynesianism
In order to finance its war effort, the Russian state has spent substantial sums of money and implemented a form of “military Keynesianism” that is transforming society at both the socioeconomic and cultural levels. This has partially rebalanced the wide disparities in wealth, levels of consumption, and social prestige in Russian society by granting significant financial and symbolic advantages to peripheral Russia, which has long been overlooked by the central government.