Fossil Energies
The geopolitics of hydrocarbons - how are global balances changing, and what are the implications for Europe, emerging and rentier states, as well as for energy transitions?
Related Subjects
How to Make European e-SAF Production under RefuelEU Aviation Fly?
Three and a half years before the scheduled entry into force of the European regulation ReFuelEU Aviation (RFEUA), which requires aviation fuel suppliers at Union airports to offer a sustainable synthetic alternative (e-SAF), no sizeable commercial production unit (greater than 10,000 tons per year) is active within Europe yet, nor has it even passed the Final Investment Decision (FID). Is a major step in the European Union (EU) plans for decarbonizing air transport at risk of not happening, or at least being postponed for several years? Is Europe losing its bet to create a market for e-SAF? Under what conditions can this bet still be won? Could sovereignty and energy security preoccupations unlock necessary public support and help to overcome economic, financial, logistical or administrative obstacles?
The European Biomethane Sector at a Critical Juncture: Stronger Policy Alignment Will Matter
The European biomethane sector is at a critical juncture.
Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. A Stress Test for Taiwan with Global Implications
The large-scale military operation carried out by the United States (US) and Israel against Iran triggered an Iranian retaliation that resulted in the partial destruction of natural gas liquefaction infrastructure and severe disruption of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The economies of East Asia—South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan in particular—are highly exposed to this crisis due to their reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports for electricity generation.
Norway’s Energy Policy Dilemmas and Debates: In or Out?
2026 may prove to be the end of the Norwegian exception. Norway has long prided itself on the successful combination of fossil fuel extraction with a strong social democracy.
Europe-Russia: Balance of Power Review
European countries can no longer avoid the "Russian question," as Russia has chosen war. They have the necessary potential—that is, the economic means, military capabilities, and technological expertise—to face Russia by 2030, provided they demonstrate the political will to do so.
Brazil One Year Away from the October 2026 General Elections
Brazil’s general elections will be held on October 4, 2026, to elect the president, vice-president, members of the National Congress, governors, deputy governors and state legislative assemblies. For the presidential and gubernatorial elections, a second round will be held on October 25 if no candidate obtains a majority of the votes in the first round.
COP30: An Inflection Point for Climate Action and Governance
The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30), opening in Belém, Brazil, on November 10th 2025, convenes at a perilous moment.
The Revenue Sources Sustaining Sudan’s Civil War. Lessons for the year 2023
Wars require money and resources, and often, most conflicts involve controlling sources of income and supply lines or denying them to enemies. This has been the case in Sudan’s past conflicts and is again as the civil war—between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), commanded by General Abdelfattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by General Mohammed Hamdan Daglo “Hemedti” —has sunk into a protracted conflict.
The Caspian Sea as an Emerging Energy Hub : Potentials and Limitations
This report analyzes the prospects of the Caspian Sea region — and its key actors except for Russia and Iran — becoming an important energy hub serving the needs of the European Union (EU).
The EU Green Deal External Impacts: Views from China, India, South Africa, Türkiye and the United States
Ahead of June 2024 European elections and against the backdrop of growing geopolitical and geoeconomic frictions, if not tensions, between the EU and some of its largest trade partners, not least based on the external impacts of the European Green Deal (EGD), Ifri chose to collect views and analyses from leading experts from China, India, South Africa, Türkiye and the United States of America (US) on how they assess bilateral relations in the field of energy and climate, and what issues and opportunities they envisage going forward.
How to Make European e-SAF Production under RefuelEU Aviation Fly?
Three and a half years before the scheduled entry into force of the European regulation ReFuelEU Aviation (RFEUA), which requires aviation fuel suppliers at Union airports to offer a sustainable synthetic alternative (e-SAF), no sizeable commercial production unit (greater than 10,000 tons per year) is active within Europe yet, nor has it even passed the Final Investment Decision (FID). Is a major step in the European Union (EU) plans for decarbonizing air transport at risk of not happening, or at least being postponed for several years? Is Europe losing its bet to create a market for e-SAF? Under what conditions can this bet still be won? Could sovereignty and energy security preoccupations unlock necessary public support and help to overcome economic, financial, logistical or administrative obstacles?
The European Biomethane Sector at a Critical Juncture: Stronger Policy Alignment Will Matter
The European biomethane sector is at a critical juncture.
Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. A Stress Test for Taiwan with Global Implications
The large-scale military operation carried out by the United States (US) and Israel against Iran triggered an Iranian retaliation that resulted in the partial destruction of natural gas liquefaction infrastructure and severe disruption of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The economies of East Asia—South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan in particular—are highly exposed to this crisis due to their reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports for electricity generation.
Norway’s Energy Policy Dilemmas and Debates: In or Out?
2026 may prove to be the end of the Norwegian exception. Norway has long prided itself on the successful combination of fossil fuel extraction with a strong social democracy.
Europe-Russia: Balance of Power Review
European countries can no longer avoid the "Russian question," as Russia has chosen war. They have the necessary potential—that is, the economic means, military capabilities, and technological expertise—to face Russia by 2030, provided they demonstrate the political will to do so.
Brazil One Year Away from the October 2026 General Elections
Brazil’s general elections will be held on October 4, 2026, to elect the president, vice-president, members of the National Congress, governors, deputy governors and state legislative assemblies. For the presidential and gubernatorial elections, a second round will be held on October 25 if no candidate obtains a majority of the votes in the first round.
COP30: An Inflection Point for Climate Action and Governance
The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30), opening in Belém, Brazil, on November 10th 2025, convenes at a perilous moment.
The Revenue Sources Sustaining Sudan’s Civil War. Lessons for the year 2023
Wars require money and resources, and often, most conflicts involve controlling sources of income and supply lines or denying them to enemies. This has been the case in Sudan’s past conflicts and is again as the civil war—between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), commanded by General Abdelfattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by General Mohammed Hamdan Daglo “Hemedti” —has sunk into a protracted conflict.
The Caspian Sea as an Emerging Energy Hub : Potentials and Limitations
This report analyzes the prospects of the Caspian Sea region — and its key actors except for Russia and Iran — becoming an important energy hub serving the needs of the European Union (EU).
The EU Green Deal External Impacts: Views from China, India, South Africa, Türkiye and the United States
Ahead of June 2024 European elections and against the backdrop of growing geopolitical and geoeconomic frictions, if not tensions, between the EU and some of its largest trade partners, not least based on the external impacts of the European Green Deal (EGD), Ifri chose to collect views and analyses from leading experts from China, India, South Africa, Türkiye and the United States of America (US) on how they assess bilateral relations in the field of energy and climate, and what issues and opportunities they envisage going forward.
Geoeconomics: 'All dependencies, minerals, currencies and semiconductors, are now being weaponized'
According to geopolitics expert Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, the competition for control over minerals, logistics and the flow of raw materials is benefiting the US and China. Europe lags behind in this geoeconomic race, with a tangible impact on how major powers are reshaping their defense capabilities.
Replay - Conference with Espen Barth Eide, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Norway
Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, Norway has become the European Union’s leading supplier of gas. This position could be further strengthened given the ongoing war in the Middle East.
Replay - Conference with Chris Wright, Secretary, U.S. Department of Energy
Welcomed at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), Chris Wright outlined his vision of American energy policy built around two core axes: the human reality of energy access, and a data-driven approach. For the Secretary, energy is the foundation of prosperity, health, and longer life expectancy on a global scale. His doctrine rests on an ambition of American "energy dominance" — not merely independence, but the capacity to produce at scale in order to lower domestic costs, reindustrialize the country, and support U.S. allies.
Pétrole : l’attaque du Hamas contre Israël nourrit des craintes autour de l’Iran
Les Etats-Unis, alliés traditionnels d’Israël, pourraient être amenés à encadrer plus strictement l’application des sanctions contre Téhéran, pays qui représentait 4 % de l’offre mondiale de brut en 2022. Voire à les durcir s’il est avéré que l’Iran a aidé à planifier les actes terroristes du Hamas.
Long-Term Operation Of Nuclear Plants Vital For Future Of Grid, Says Expert
Argument that reactors are expensive "does not hold any more", conference hears. Nuclear plants will be needed for the future stability of Europe’s grid, Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega said.
What can we expect from Russia at COP26?
We ask experts whether the Kremlin’s latest moves on climate, including its 2060 net-zero target, heralds genuine change or more greenwash.
Russia has been seen as a climate pariah by the international community for some years. It was one of the last counties to ratify the 2015 Paris Agreement – not until September 2019, at the UN’s Climate Action Summit.
From Russia, with love
Russia is trying to “sow chaos” in Europe by betting big on Marine Le Pen and France's far right.
Replay - Conference with Espen Barth Eide, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Norway
Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, Norway has become the European Union’s leading supplier of gas. This position could be further strengthened given the ongoing war in the Middle East.
Replay - Conference with Chris Wright, Secretary, U.S. Department of Energy
Welcomed at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), Chris Wright outlined his vision of American energy policy built around two core axes: the human reality of energy access, and a data-driven approach. For the Secretary, energy is the foundation of prosperity, health, and longer life expectancy on a global scale. His doctrine rests on an ambition of American "energy dominance" — not merely independence, but the capacity to produce at scale in order to lower domestic costs, reindustrialize the country, and support U.S. allies.
Geopolitics of Climate Change - World Policy Conference 2024 (Plenary Session)
Plenary session 6: Geopolitics of Climate Change. Friday, December 13, 2024 - 17th edition of the World Policy Conference in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Support independent French research
Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2026, Ifri partners with over 90 French and international companies and organizations.
