Search on Ifri.org

About Ifri

Frequent searches

Suggestions

Numerology in the Second Nuclear Age

Studies
|
Date de publication
|
Référence taxonomie collections
Proliferation Papers
Image de couverture de la publication
Numerology in the Second Nuclear Age
Corps analyses

The nuclear numbers game has changed. During the Cold War, deterrence strategists claimed that the nuclear balance mattered, even at extraordinarily high numbers. By this musty logic, the United States now has more deterrence leverage against Russia than at any time since the Soviet nuclear build-up in the 1960s. This paper contends that nuclear "numerology", centered around "prompt hard-target kill" capabilities and nuclear exchange ratios, provides extremely modest political leverage. The “delicate balance of terror” that Western deterrence strategists worried about so obsessively during the Cold War now sounds like the laments of an ancient, interred religion. New nuclear dangers are now reducible by cooperative threat reduction initiatives rather than by increasing warheads, yields, and throw-weights.

 

Decoration

Available in:

Regions and themes

Thématiques analyses

ISBN / ISSN

978-2-592-618-3

Share

Download the full analysis

This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.

Numerology in the Second Nuclear Age

Decoration
Author(s)
Image principale
 A soldier watching a sunset on an armored infantry fighting vehicle
Security Studies Center
Accroche centre

Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

Image principale

Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Temptations. Lessons Learned from Regional Instability

Date de publication
11 September 2025
Accroche

Saudi Arabia’s integration in the international arena and regional stability, notably through reducing its dependence on fossil energies, are crucial elements for the success of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030, the Crown Prince’s top priority. However, Mohammed bin Salman’s declarations in 2018 and 2021, indicating that “if Iran develops a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible”, combined with the recent strikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, do not bode well for the future of the Kingdom, the region and the non-proliferation regime at large.

Nour EID
Image principale

The Future of Air Superiority. Command of the Air in High Intensity Warfare

Date de publication
24 January 2025
Accroche

Air superiority, understood as control of the air, is a cornerstone of the Western art of warfare. It is a decisive condition, albeit not sufficient by itself, to achieve military victory, as it enables the concentration of air power toward the achievement of wider strategic objectives and protects other components from unbearable attrition levels. It is best achieved through the offensive use of air power in a joint effort to neutralize the enemy’s air power.

Image principale

Europe Uncovered?

Date de publication
09 September 2025
Accroche

As Russia continues to threaten Europe, the Trump administration is making no secret of its desire to withdraw—at least partially—from the defense of the Old
Continent in order to focus on strategic competition with China. It is thus putting pressure on its European allies to increase their investment in the military sector. The NATO Summit in The Hague in June 2025 resulted in ambitious commitments by member states to increase their defense spending.

Élie TENENBAUM Guillaume GARNIER
Image principale

How should Britain and France cooperate to realise the Northwood Declaration?

Date de publication
18 July 2025
Accroche

During his state visit to the United Kingdom (UK) last week, Emmanuel Macron, President of France, signed a joint declaration with Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, on nuclear cooperation between Britain and France. The Northwood Declaration highlights that while both countries’ nuclear arsenals remain sovereign, cooperation on nuclear deterrence can ‘contribute significantly’ to the security of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the Euro-Atlantic region.

Related Subjects

How can this study be cited?

Image de couverture de la publication
Numerology in the Second Nuclear Age
Numerology in the Second Nuclear Age, from Ifri by
Copy
Image de couverture de la publication
Numerology in the Second Nuclear Age

Numerology in the Second Nuclear Age