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From Cuba to Ukraine: Strategic Signaling and Nuclear Deterrence

Politique étrangère Articles from Politique Etrangère
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Politique étrangère, Vol. 89, No. 4, Winter 2024
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Strategic signaling—the range of signs and maneuvers intended, in peace time, to lend credibility to any threat to use nuclear weapons—is back.

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Visuel de Cuba à l'Ukraine
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The war in Ukraine has taken it in a new direction for both Russia and the West. It can involve both nuclear and conventional forces. Attention must also be given to technological developments that may affect access to information and its interpretation.

Héloïse Fayet is Research Fellow and head of the Deterrence and Proliferation program at Ifri's Security Studies Center.

Article published in French only in Politique étrangère, Vol. 89, No. 4, Winter 2024.

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heloise fayet

Héloïse FAYET

Intitulé du poste

Research Fellow and Head of the Deterrence and Proliferation program, Security Studies Center, Ifri

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Security Studies Center
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Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

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Confronting Russia’s High-Velocity Arsenal: European Challenges and Solutions

Date de publication
11 September 2026
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Since February 2022, Russian missile and long-range drone strikes against Ukraine have served as near-daily reminders of what European states could face in a war with Russia. The same weapon systems battering Ukrainian infrastructure and population centers would be directed against European military and civilian targets in any confrontation between Russia and NATO. As Russian missile production expands and its arsenal diversifies, Europe must confront an uncomfortable question: how to deter, and if push comes to shove, fight Russia's long-range strike arsenal?

Fabian HOFFMANN
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The War on Terrorism: Global Experts Reflect on Lessons Learned Twenty-Five Years After 9/11

Date de publication
08 September 2026
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Twenty-five years ago, the September 11 attacks prompted the invention of new security architectures that shaped the war on terrorism. Sixteen think tank experts from fifteen countries reflect on the successes, failures, and missed opportunities in the fight against terrorism—a fight that is still ongoing.

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From Corsairs to Private Military Contractors. Nonmilitary Maritime Actors and the Historical Continuities of Naval Warfare

Date de publication
26 August 2026
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Since late 2023, several Houthi attacks on commercial shipping have involved privately contracted armed teams conducting defensive engagements and coordinating immediate response efforts, often in the relative absence of regular naval forces during the immediate hostilities at sea. These cases highlight a strategic tension that increasingly confronts modern navies. On the one hand, they are expected to conduct persistent, low-intensity maritime security tasks such as counterpiracy, maritime policing, and the protection of commercial shipping. On the other hand, they face renewed pressure to prepare for high-intensity conflict against peer and near-peer adversaries amid the return of great power competition.

Pieter ZHAO
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Framework Nation: A European Challenge and French Ambition

Date de publication
10 June 2026
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First appearing in the early 2000s, the framework nation concept follows several distinct rationales, whether it refers to a country assuming the leadership of a military operation, directing a multinational capability project, or commanding a permanent force structure. In every case, the country that takes on this role fully intends to derive from it additional politico-military influence.

How can this study be cited?

Héloïse FAYET, « From Cuba to Ukraine: Strategic Signaling and Nuclear Deterrence », Politique étrangère, Articles from Politique Etrangère, Ifri, 3 December 2024.
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