From Cuba to Ukraine: Strategic Signaling and Nuclear Deterrence
Strategic signaling—the range of signs and maneuvers intended, in peace time, to lend credibility to any threat to use nuclear weapons—is back.

The war in Ukraine has taken it in a new direction for both Russia and the West. It can involve both nuclear and conventional forces. Attention must also be given to technological developments that may affect access to information and its interpretation.
Héloïse Fayet is Research Fellow and head of the Deterrence and Proliferation program at Ifri's Security Studies Center.
Article published in French only in Politique étrangère, Vol. 89, No. 4, Winter 2024.
Available in:
Themes and regions
Share
Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programsFind out more
Discover all our analysesThe Evolving Role of Nuclear Rhetoric in Iran’s Strategic Calculus
How has the Iranian strategic discourse about nuclear weapons and deterrence evolved?
Design, Destroy, Dominate. The Mass Drone Warfare as a Potential Military Revolution
The widespread use of drones observed in Ukraine—both in terms of the scale of the fleets deployed and their omnipresence in the operations of both belligerents—appears to meet the conditions of a genuine military revolution.
The Hunt for Economic Security: The Role of Navies in Deterring Threats to the Maritime Economy
The maritime domain is currently faced with a wide variety of threats, such as climate change, economic warfare, shadow fleet operations, protection of critical infrastructures, and illicit activities ranging from illegal fishing to piracy. Navies suffer from inherent limitations when deterring threats to the global maritime economy: their global presence and permanence limits their credibility in terms of deterrence, their focus usually set on immediate deterrence, implementing deterrence by punishment in and from the naval domain is difficult and costly.
A Fragile Consensus? The Pressure on the Norm Against Nuclear Testing
Apart from North Korea, no state has conducted explosive nuclear tests in the 21st century, reflecting the emergence of a strong international norm against such testing.