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From Cuba to Ukraine: Strategic Signaling and Nuclear Deterrence

Politique étrangère Articles from Politique Etrangère
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Politique étrangère, Vol. 89, No. 4, Winter 2024
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Strategic signaling—the range of signs and maneuvers intended, in peace time, to lend credibility to any threat to use nuclear weapons—is back.

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Visuel de Cuba à l'Ukraine
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The war in Ukraine has taken it in a new direction for both Russia and the West. It can involve both nuclear and conventional forces. Attention must also be given to technological developments that may affect access to information and its interpretation.

Héloïse Fayet is Research Fellow and head of the Deterrence and Proliferation program at Ifri's Security Studies Center.

Article published in French only in Politique étrangère, Vol. 89, No. 4, Winter 2024.

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heloise fayet

Héloïse FAYET

Intitulé du poste

Research Fellow and Head of the Deterrence and Proliferation program, Security Studies Center, Ifri

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Security Studies Center
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Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

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Fury from the Skies. A Strategic Analysis of Air Campaign against Iran

Date de publication
07 May 2026
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What is the outcome of Operations Roaring Lion (RL) and Epic Fury (EF), launched by Israel and the United States against the Islamic Republic of Iran on February 28, 2026?

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Finland: The Ally Who Came in from the Cold

Date de publication
10 April 2026
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Among all European countries, Finland is perhaps the one whose strategic culture and military model have changed the least since the end of the Cold War. Built after the end of the Second World War to deter a potential new Soviet invasion, this model enabled Finland to serve as an example of European rearmament.

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Stability under Pressure. A Pakistani View on Nuclear Deterrence after Pahalgam

Date de publication
24 June 2026
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The May 2025 India-Pakistan crisis after the Pahalgam attack has generated a familiar but incomplete debate: did nuclear deterrence work, or did it merely allow both sides to fight a limited war under the nuclear shadow? The better answer is that deterrence worked at the level at which it was designed to work. It prevented a general war and an uncontrolled vertical escalation, and kept nuclear weapons in the background. But it did not prevent India from attempting to carve out space for conventional action, nor did it prevent Pakistan from responding conventionally to restore deterrence credibility.

Rabia Akhtar
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Strategic Shift in NATO’s Support for Ukraine. A Study of NSATU and PURL Initiatives

Date de publication
04 June 2026
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This study analyzes a significant transformation in NATO’s practical support to Ukraine, marked by the establishment of the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) mission and the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) funding mechanism.

Iryna KRASNOSHTAN

How can this study be cited?

Héloïse FAYET, « From Cuba to Ukraine: Strategic Signaling and Nuclear Deterrence », Politique étrangère, Articles from Politique Etrangère, Ifri, 3 December 2024.
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