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From Cuba to Ukraine: Strategic Signaling and Nuclear Deterrence

Politique étrangère Articles from Politique Etrangère
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Politique étrangère, Vol. 89, No. 4, Winter 2024
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Strategic signaling—the range of signs and maneuvers intended, in peace time, to lend credibility to any threat to use nuclear weapons—is back.

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Visuel de Cuba à l'Ukraine
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The war in Ukraine has taken it in a new direction for both Russia and the West. It can involve both nuclear and conventional forces. Attention must also be given to technological developments that may affect access to information and its interpretation.

Héloïse Fayet is Research Fellow and head of the Deterrence and Proliferation program at Ifri's Security Studies Center.

Article published in French only in Politique étrangère, Vol. 89, No. 4, Winter 2024.

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heloise fayet

Héloïse FAYET

Intitulé du poste

Research Fellow and Head of the Deterrence and Proliferation program, Security Studies Center, Ifri

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Security Studies Center
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Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

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The Nuanced Relationship Between Public Opinion and Foreign Policy

Date de publication
23 July 2026
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Public sentiment is something decision-makers must contend with, especially in democratic states. However, the extent to which public opinion shapes foreign policy varies. Three Council of Councils experts in France, India, and Nigeria reflect on how public opinion does—and sometimes does not—affect foreign policy decisions.

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Taking the Pulse: Enough with the Annual NATO Summits, Already?

Date de publication
16 July 2026
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Over the past ten years, NATO has held almost as many summits as it did during the entirety of the Cold War. Are they still useful, or is it time to stop holding annual meetings?

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How does France’s nuclear deterrent contribute to the defense of Europe?

Date de publication
10 July 2026
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France’s nuclear deterrent, serving first and foremost to defend France’s vital interests, also contributes to the defense of Europe. This contribution has been recognized within the North Atlantic Alliance since 1974, but remains little known. In a speech closely followed by France’s European partners and its adversaries alike, President Emmanuel Macron announced a new concept for French nuclear deterrence: “forward deterrence” (dissuasion avancée). This article aims to explain the origins of this concept, outline its main pillars, and describe the partnerships that are sought. It then discusses the relationship with the U.S. doctrine of “extended deterrence”, and finally offers some ethical considerations.

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Fury from the Skies. A Strategic Analysis of Air Campaign against Iran

Date de publication
07 May 2026
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What is the outcome of Operations Roaring Lion (RL) and Epic Fury (EF), launched by Israel and the United States against the Islamic Republic of Iran on February 28, 2026?

How can this study be cited?

Héloïse FAYET, « From Cuba to Ukraine: Strategic Signaling and Nuclear Deterrence », Politique étrangère, Articles from Politique Etrangère, Ifri, 3 December 2024.
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