Between clear perils and black swans: the strategic challenges after COVID-19 Les Jeudis de l'Ifri

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights both the appetites for power and the limits of cooperation and governance mechanisms. While its short-term effects on the armed forces and the defense industrial and technological base were identified early enough, the longer-term security challenges are manifold. Some are already visible, like the multiplying strategic signals and the opportunity effects exploited by all types of actors in the vicinity of Europe as everywhere else, which recall the omnipresence of the balance of power. While many other effects remain more uncertain, gloomy prospects are emerging, which may combine a sudden acceleration of strategic competition, catastrophic humanitarian situations and budget cuts for the French armies and their closest partners. The challenge for the French defense strategy is therefore more than ever to give itself back some leeway, by re-articulating both its priorities and its discourse.

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