Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe: the Endgame?
Notes de l’Ifri, January 2017
The descent into the morass of failure seems relentless for a country that used to be, at the aftermath of its independence in 1980, the “jewel in Africa” to be carefully preserved, as former Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere advised an acclaimed Mugabe ascending into power.
The precipitous economy has sparked growing dissent and anti-government protests in Harare since June 2016, which have flared up all over the country, calling for Mugabe’s ruling party, Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU PF), to step down.
Yet, despite his rapidly deteriorating health conditions and his advanced age, the 92-years-old President seems not having any intention to leave the helm of his sinking ship. He unlashes the heavy-handed Zimbabwe Republic Police (ZRP) against demonstrators and openly threatens judges ruling over the exercise of constitutional rights such as freedom of assembly. The future ahead is filled with uncertainties for Zimbabwe, with a new wave of protests staged by opposition groups calling for electoral reforms, the announced plans to introduce bond notes in October sparking apprehensions from investors and citizens and growing factionalism within ZANU PF. Overall, consensus coalesces around the idea that Zimbabwe is finally entering a new phase of its history; yet, the direction of this transition remains unclear. Much will depend on the power struggle within the ruling party, the cohesion of the opposition and the ability of the international community to seize the moment and re-engage the country in a process of real and meaningful change.
This note provides the historical background of the present crisis; analyses the political dynamics in the ruling party and opposition circles and describes various potential developments from now to the 2018 elections.
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Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe: the Endgame?
Sub-Saharan Africa Center
Founded in 2007, Ifri's Sub-Saharan Africa center produces an in-depth analysis of the African continent and its security, geopolitical, political and socio-economic dynamics (in particular the phenomenon of urbanization). The Center aims to be both, through various publications and conferences, a space for disseminating analyzes intended for the media and the public but also a decision-making tool for political and economic actors with regard to the continent.
The center produces analyses for various organizations such as the Ministry of the Armed Forces, the Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the French Development Agency (AFD) and even for various private supports. Its researchers are regularly interviewed by parliamentary committees.
The organization of events of various formats complements the production of analyzes by bringing the different spheres of the public space (academic, political, media, economic and civil society) to meet and exchange analytical tools and visions of the continent. The Sub-Saharan Africa Center regularly welcomes political leaders from different sub-Saharan African countries.
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