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Towards a New European Trade Strategy in Times of Geopolitical Upheaval: The German Perspective

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Notes du Cerfa, No. 176, Ifri, October 2023
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As one of the most successful trading blocs, the EU sees itself confronted with the erosion of the global rules-based trading system and trade becoming increasingly weaponized.

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“Map of EU Trade Agreements”, European Commission, February 1st, 2023
“Map of EU Trade Agreements”, European Commission, February 1st, 2023
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The ongoing US-China decoupling and the Russian war in Ukraine recently reinforced the debate about European sovereignty and economic security with wide-ranging consequences for the EU’s economic model and its trade relations with third countries. Recalibrating the degree of the EU’s economic openness involves new approaches regarding multilateralism, bilateral trade agreements and autonomous trade instruments.

This paper looks at how Germany as an internationally highly interconnected country is directly impacted by all these developments and thus tries to both adapt its own position and help shape a new European trade strategy. This will be of high relevance for both the new European Commission and European Parliament after the upcoming European elections in 2024.

 

Klemens Kober is Director Trade Policy, EU Customs, Transatlantic Relations at the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) as well as EU-representative of the Association of the German Trade Fair Industry (AUMA). 

The views expressed in this paper are those of the author only.

 

>> >> See also the publication by Marie Krpata and Ana Helena Palermo: available in French and German (pdf):

FRENCH: "UE-Mercosur : un trilemme insoluble entre règles de la concurrence, ambitions normatives et diversification des approvisionnements".

GERMAN: "EU-Mercosur: Ein unlösbares Trilemma zwischen Wettbewerbsregeln, normativen Ambitionen und der Diversifizierung der Lieferketten".

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979-10-373-0760-6

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Towards a New European Trade Strategy in Times of Geopolitical Upheaval: The German Perspective

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The Pariser Platz (Paris Square) on the east side of the Brandenburg Gate at Berlin, Germany
The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa)
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The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) was created in 1954 by an inter-governmental agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and France, in order to raise awareness of Germany in France and analyze Franco-German relations, including in their European and international dimensions. In its conferences and seminars, which bring together experts, political leaders, senior decision-makers and representatives of civil society from both countries, Cerfa develops the Franco-German debate and stimulates political proposals. It regularly publishes studies through two collections: Cerfa notes and studies as well as Franco-German visions.

Cerfa maintains close relations with the network of German foundations and think tanks. In addition to its research and debate activities, Cerfa promotes the emergence of a new Franco-German generation through original cooperation programs. This is how in 2021-2022, Cerfa led a program on multilateralism with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Paris. This program is aimed at young professionals from both countries interested in the issues of multilateralism in the context of their activities. It covered a wide range of themes relating to multilateralism, such as international trade, health, human rights and migration, non-proliferation and disarmament. Previously, Cerfa had participated in the Franco-German future dialogue, co-led with the DGAP from 2007 to 2020, and supported by the Robert Bosch Foundation and the Daniel Vernet group (formerly the Franco-German Reflection Group) which was founded in 2014 upon the initiative of the Genshagen Foundation.

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Date de publication
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„Under Destruction“– this was this year’s motto at the Munich Security Conference. A motto that applies both to security and economy in an increasingly fragile international system. In 2024, Mario Draghi’s report on the EU’s competitiveness rang the alarm bell:  Europe is slipping behind the US and China, European companies struggle with Brussels' bureaucracy, and the internal market is too fragmented. However, two years later only about 15 % of his recommendations were implemented: the wake-up call was not heard.

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Germany in the Shadow of the United States, Russia, and China – Systemic Paradigm Shifts

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Since reunification, Germany has built its prosperity on an international order based on free trade, multilateralism, and geopolitical stability. This model relied on three relationships considered complementary: U.S. military protection, Russian energy supplies, and economic integration with China. For several decades, Berlin viewed these interdependencies as factors contributing to peace, growth, and security.

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France and EU Enlargement: From Strategic Hesitation to a Geopolitical Shift

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Paris has come a long way in its approach to enlarging the European Union. However, French support remains fragile, due in part to a lack of public support.

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Date de publication
19 May 2026
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Germany is facing fundamental challenges to its economic and social model and is seeking a new course. The German post-war model was hugely successful, leading to economic strength and prosperity over many decades, but now it is steadily faltering. The previously latent fear of deindustrialization is becoming more concrete, particularly due to the weakening of a key sector: the automotive industry.

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“Map of EU Trade Agreements”, European Commission, February 1st, 2023
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How can this study be cited?

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Klemens KOBER, « Towards a New European Trade Strategy in Times of Geopolitical Upheaval: The German Perspective », Papers, Notes du Cerfa, Ifri, 6 October 2023.
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Towards a New European Trade Strategy in Times of Geopolitical Upheaval: The German Perspective