To Attack or Not to Attack: Israel Confronts a Dramatic Decision Actuelles de l'Ifri, August 2012
In the heat of the public discussion on the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that he has not yet decided whether to attack Iran. At the same time, partly in response to opponents of such an attack, he made it clear that the risk of harm to the home front at this point, when Iran still does not have nuclear weapons, is dwarfed by the risks involved in an attack on Israel after Iran has gone nuclear.
Against this background, inter alia, the feverish activity in recent weeks by Netanyahu, his supporters, and the prime minister’s bureau to convince those who are sitting on the fence or have reservations about the possibility of an attack on Iran to change their position, is especially noteworthy. In this context, it was announced that the Prime Minister had succeeded in persuading Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman to join the supporters of an attack on Iran. In addition, the Prime Minister’s bureau has undertaken an intensive media campaign against President Shimon Peres, who has spoken out against an Israeli attack on Iran. The appointment of Kadima member Avi Dichter, who is known to support an attack on Iran, as minister of Home front defense, is also connected to this issue.
Undoubtedly, the Iranian issue presents Israeli decision makers, and in particular, Prime Minister Netanyahu, with a magnitude of fateful decisions. We believe that the public discussion of this issue is positive in and of itself in a democratic society like Israel. Nevertheless, it is likely to cause damage to the country if it spills over into detailed information about operational issues, and especially, if Israel’s capabilities and limitations vis-à-vis Iran are discussed. As long as it remains on the political level and does not get into details of limitations and capabilities, it must be conducted within a serious framework for discussion, professional and politically impartial. Within this framework, it is legitimate for there to be disagreements. Below we will attempt to examine the main questions the Prime Minister will seek to answer when he decides about an attack on Iran.