Will the party “Alternative for Germany" be able to establish itself on the German political landscape?
Only a few months after it had been founded, the Alternative for Germany party (AfD) won 4.7% of the second votes in the federal elections, on 22 September 2013 – only 130,000 short of what was required for entry into the German Bundestag. Party and election researcher Oskar Niedermayer called it a "successful failure".
In fact, the anti-euro party mobilized voters much faster than any other new party at the federal level has done previously. While party researchers forecasted that the “single-issue party” would only briefly be part of the German party system, in the European elections of 2014 the AfD achieved more than a succes d'estime, winning 7% of the votes.
Infighting between the party’s liberal-conservative and national-conservative wings led to the former, more moderate wing splitting off, and forming a new party, the Alliance for Progress and Renewal (Alfa).
The AfD, which has been turning increasingly into a “multi-issue party” with a (right-wing) populist profile, is getting 5% support according to recent opinion polls. This must certainly be seen in the context of the ongoing refugee crisis. Whether the party will beat the 5% threshold needed to enter the Bundestag in 2017 yet remains to be seen. It is nevertheless clear that there is room for an “antiestablishment party" on the right wing of the political spectrum in Germany.
This paper is published in French – L’« Alternative pour l’Allemagne » : Le parti s’établira-t-il sur la droite de l’échiquier politique allemand ?
It is also published in German – Die „Alternative für Deutschland“: Gekommen, um zu bleiben?
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The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) was created in 1954 by an inter-governmental agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and France, in order to raise awareness of Germany in France and analyze Franco-German relations, including in their European and international dimensions. In its conferences and seminars, which bring together experts, political leaders, senior decision-makers and representatives of civil society from both countries, Cerfa develops the Franco-German debate and stimulates political proposals. It regularly publishes studies through two collections: Cerfa notes and studies as well as Franco-German visions.
Cerfa maintains close relations with the network of German foundations and think tanks. In addition to its research and debate activities, Cerfa promotes the emergence of a new Franco-German generation through original cooperation programs. This is how in 2021-2022, Cerfa led a program on multilateralism with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Paris. This program is aimed at young professionals from both countries interested in the issues of multilateralism in the context of their activities. It covered a wide range of themes relating to multilateralism, such as international trade, health, human rights and migration, non-proliferation and disarmament. Previously, Cerfa had participated in the Franco-German future dialogue, co-led with the DGAP from 2007 to 2020, and supported by the Robert Bosch Foundation and the Daniel Vernet group (formerly the Franco-German Reflection Group) which was founded in 2014 upon the initiative of the Genshagen Foundation.
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