Brexit: Getting in a State Politique étrangère, Vol. 83, No. 4, Winter 2018-2019

As Brexit fast approaches, what can be said about the key issues? Politique étrangère summarizes them with four questions.

Will a lone United Kingdom have the means to redefine its relations with the rest of the world on its own terms? How can the Irish border issue be solved—should the border be restored for the sake of EU relations, or should it remain invisible to keep the peace? What will the true economic consequences of the break-off from Europe be, for both sides? And finally, will the United Kingdom remain a major player when it comes to security and defense, once London has been excluded from the European decision-making circle?

The upcoming European Parliament elections in May 2019 also invite us to revisit the notion of the famous European “democratic deficit.” The Counter Analysis section of this issue looks at two contrasting approaches. One of them has faith in the processes at work within the EU, which are establishing increasingly democratic balancing and monitoring practices between the different institutions. The other claims that the political exchanges and principles underlying democracy can only be taken on by individual populations, in other words, only on a national level: The EU is only democratic thanks to the voluntary cooperation of the entities that make it up. This is a crucial debate for an EU whose opinions are causing it to lose credibility.

Politique étrangère then moves away from Europe to focus on the Rohingya crisis, the unknown future of a post-election Afghanistan, the chaos in Libya, and the unexpected rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea. It also examines the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in military strategy: Does AI decrease the effectiveness of human strategies, and will it ultimately threaten to replace them?

CASE FILE
BREXIT: GETTING IN A STATE

The United Kingdom and the World After Brexit, by Pauline Schnapper

The Economic and Financial Impact of Brexit, by Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol

The Irish Question, a Major Brexit Issue, by Marie-Claire Considère-Charon

Brexit and European Defense: Toward an Ambiguous Deal?, by Jolyon Howorth

COUNTER ANALYSIS
EUROPEAN DEMOCRACY AFTER THE ELECTIONS

Can There be a European Democracy?, by Marie-Françoise Bechtel

The Challenge of European Democracy, by Maxime Lefebvre

CURRENT AFFAIRS

Trump’s Trade Wars: The Outcry Against Multilateralism, by Jean-Marc Siroën (read the article in French)

What Next for Afghanistan?, by Jean-Luc Racine (read the article in French)

BAROMETERS