The expression “country risk” emerged in the United States in the 1960s. Its meaning has evolved over time, without any definition ever really being settled on.

From the incident at Pristina airport (1999) to the seizure of Crimea (2014), Moscow is trying to demonstrate that it will not abide by rules set by others, nor resign itself to the place of a second-tier power. 

To implement the “grand strategy”, Moscow’s strongest card is the energy weapon. However, the fall in oil prices and the conflict in Ukraine have brought things sharply into perspective. The traditional military dimension of the army is currently resigned to waging “limited wars” in localized areas.

Russia’s economic crisis was not caused by decisions taken by the West following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It was predicted and widely mediatized.

The annexation of Crimea and the Ukraine crisis have enabled Vladimir Putin once again to put on a display of Russian dominance, uniting the nation around core conservative values. 

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German foreign policy is today confronted with a number of fundamental challenges. The country has become larger and has again become strong economically and must no longer content itself with its former role as France’s political junior partner in Europe or the United States’ junior partner in the world. At the same time, Berlin is far from being fully prepared for taking over this new role – deficits are both strategic and conceptual.

Brazil’s economy is currently undergoing the effects of a double whammy.