RAMSES 2021. At the Edge?
RAMSES 2021. At the Edge?, written by Ifri's research team and external experts, offers an in-depth and up-to-date analysis of geopolitics in today’s world.
Bavaria and France. Preparing the Future together
France and Bavaria have a longstanding close and solid partnership. However, the relationship between France and Bavaria is not only marked by a common history and by the structures created over the decades.
The European Equation of Nuclear Deterrence, Variables and Possible Solutions
Ever since nuclear weapons were developed by the United States and the Union of Socialist Soviet Republics, Europe has lived under the nuclear shadow. A major direct confrontation between “the West” and “the East” could have very likely resulted in the detonation of nuclear weapons on the continent. As the Cold War ended, massive reductions in the US and Soviet arsenals (from 70,300 in 1986 to 13,890 in 2019) and a new security architecture radically transformed the European security environment.
Immigration in the EU and the US: Comparing Border Policies
Both in the US and in Europe, border control has become one central component of immigration and asylum policies with seemingly the same objective: preventing irregular entries of migrants and refugees. This trend has accelerated in recent years, with ever stricter border controls, more detention of migrants and refugees, the use of the notion of “safe third country” and partnerships with third countries, some of which now play a pivotal role in controlling the borders of their US and European neighbors, such as Turkey and Mexico.
What are the differences and similarities in the policies implemented in the EU and the US? What is their impact on the fundamental rights of migrants and refugees? In both contexts, what relative weight is given to the rights of migrants and refugees on the one hand, and to border enforcement measures on the other? Finally, what long-term consequences will the COVID-19 crisis have on border policies in both cases?
Captain in the Storm: Challenges and Opportunities for the German EU Council Presidency
The German Presidency of the Council of the European Union begins on July 1, 2020 at a time of acute crisis. It is facing unprecedented challenges and organizational constraints in a context marked by high expectations from its European partners.
Allies despair as Trump abandons America's leadership role at a time of global crisis
The United States has scaled back its role on the world stage, taken actions that are undermining efforts to battle the coronavirus pandemic and left the international community without a traditional global leader, according to experts, diplomats and analysts.
Europe’s relationship with China is now one of mistrust and hostility
At the start of the pandemic, Europe and China helped one other. Then the mood changed.
China's Mix of Aggressive and Charming Coronavirus Diplomacy could Worsen Europe's Fractures, Report warns
A prominent French think tank has warned that China's so-called "mask diplomacy" amid the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic threatens to further exacerbate divisions within the European Union, with Beijing tailoring its approach to suit different nations. The French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) published a new report Thursday detailing how coronavirus could alter EU-China relations, both during the outbreak and in the long-term.
Covid-19 in Europe-China Relations: A country-level analysis
Analysis from 19 countries reveals the complexities of Europe’s relations with China amid the Covid-19 crisis.
Hubris, Black Swans and the Future of Europe
European Council meetings are seldom exciting. But last week’s virtual gathering showed once again that, despite fears, Europe is moving forward in the most serious crises.
Easing the Lockdown: Some of the Issues
After my first editorial a month ago (it seems like forever!), I am back with some concise remarks.
Perspectives on a Hydrogen Strategy for the European Union
There is now a wide understanding that larger use of clean hydrogen in future can be an important mean to achieve decarbonisation of the European economy.
Complementarity or Competition? Franco-British Cooperation and the European Horizon of French Defense Policy
What does future hold for the Franco-British defense partnership after Brexit?
Accelerating the Energy Transition: The Role of Green Finance and its Challenges for Europe
Green finance has been a burgeoning sector since the Paris Agreement and is at the crossroads of financial, socio-economic and environmental challenges. It is hybrid in nature: it uses financial instruments and focuses on environmental issues, while coming under the wider field of so-called “sustainable” finance that assumes a broader approach with the inclusion of socio-economic and governance challenges. It is a catalyst as it facilitates and accelerates the transition to a low-carbon economy. It also includes an increasing range of instruments. From green bonds to green indices, green loans and capital raising activities, the sector is growing both quantitatively and qualitatively. So-called “green” issuance debt alone increased fivefold in nearly three years to reach US $ 257 billion in 2019, emphasizing its on-going innovation and attractiveness.
Green finance embraces the various objectives of public and private actors. It also raises major questions about the future of our societies: choosing to finance only sectors that are already “green” entails significant socio-economic risks, such as job losses in high-emitting (brown) sectors and stranded assets. Adopting a sequenced approach potentially amounts to locking in polluting activities in the long term and not achieving the Paris Climate Agreement’s objectives (lock-in effect).
In view of the physical risks of climate change (devastation and disasters) and those related to energy transition (stranded assets), climate change is now generally considered as a systematic risk. Public and private actors– institutional investors, banks, regulators, central banks, insurers, credit rating agencies, states, multilateral organizations – are taking action both to better understand the risks posed by climate change, and to capitalize on opportunities in this growing field. Green finance provides the financial sector with instruments to effectively reorient capital towards the low-carbon transition. Against a background of uncertainty about the effects of climate change,[1] green finance also reduces the information asymmetry about risks related to major ecosystem disruptions. The structuring and distribution of “green” products are important growth drivers for many stakeholders and in a wide variety of sectors.
However, many risks and challenges remain: financial risks, specifically related to high levels of subsidies for the production and use of fossil fuels, and the lack of a single carbon price; structural risks, which hamper the economic attractiveness of sustainable activities, particularly in terms of profitability; and unclear political signals, notably resulting in regulatory uncertainty. Furthermore, the language of green finance remains fragmented and is still relatively vague: there are many reporting frameworks and taxonomies, preventing easy and uniform ownership by stakeholders. Standardized methodologies, requirements and disclosures are critically needed. A common language is required, not only among Europeans but worldwide, to ensure that financing the ecological transition is genuinely effective.
The quality and comparability of non-financial reporting must be significantly improved to ensure its effectiveness. The principle of double materiality of information – financial and non-financial – is crucial. Green finance provides the entire financial system with instruments to accomplish its transition. It also avoids both a “niche” and a lax approach that are conducive to greenwashing and damaging to the sector growth, and, ultimately, to the transitional objective of green finance. As a source of systemic risk, and in view of the challenges of financing the transition, the aim is to ensure that the concept of sustainable finance remains purposeful by integrating environmental, social and governance (ESG) “filters” into the overall operation of capital markets.
There are many risks of intentional or unintentional greenwashing for market actors: making wrong investment choices, because they are ill-informed about the real nature of sustainability; seeing their reputation discredited in their clients and fund managers’ eyes; undermining trust and the fundamentals of green finance.
The European Union (EU) has taken the lead on these issues. The European Commission’s (EC) Action Plan on Financing Sustainable Growth of March 2018 aims to reorient capital flows towards a more sustainable economy, integrate sustainability into financial institutions’ risk management and promote transparency and long-term awareness within financial institutions. This Action Plan includes numerous instruments, such as an Ecolabel for financial products, the development of a European standard for green bonds, a so-called “Disclosure” regulation legislating on non-financial reporting by market actors, and the clarification of banking and investment advisors’ duties in terms of integrating ESG factors and incorporating sustainability into prudential requirements for banks and insurers. One of the main instruments is the European “taxonomy” for sustainable economic activities, which is intended to establish a common language for greening the financial sector by covering a wide range of actors and activities, at least on a voluntary basis. This future taxonomy has major global potential that could boost the EU’s normative power. Consequently, these challenges are now the focus of the G20 and its Financial Stability Board (FSB), and that of the United Nations.
The EU’s sustainable finance strategy is over the long term, striving to take as comprehensive a view as possible of financial regulation and climate change, and therefore fully redirect capital flows towards financing the transition. The next few months will be critical for the future of the sector, with work continuing on the European taxonomy, the preparation of delegated acts subsequent to the final recommendations prepared by the EU’s Technical Expert Group on Sustainable Finance (TEG), and the implementation of the European Green Deal.
[1]. “Scientific Uncertainty”, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, No. 797, October 29, 2019, available at: www.nature.com; M. L. Weitzman, “Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change”, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011, pp. 275-292, available at: https://doi.org.
The Recycling of Lithium-Ion Batteries: A Strategic Pillar for the European Battery Alliance
Although it is still marginal, the market for electric vehicles (EVs) is growing. According to the French Institute of Petroleum and Renewable Energies (IFPEN, Institut Français du Pétrole et des Énergies Renouvelables), EVs accounted for a little more than 2% of the light vehicle market in 2019. This was up by 54% compared to 2018, but EVs still only represent 0.8% of the global car fleet. That said, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates EVs could make up between 15% and 30% of vehicle sales in 2030.
China and the New Geopolitics of Technical Standardization
China is rapidly emerging as a formidable power in the development of technical standards, transforming the international standard-setting landscape and reintroducing an element of geopolitics into what are too often considered as benign, technical processes.
Europe in the Face of US-China Rivalry
Navigating the mounting tensions between the United States and China is a geopolitical minefield. Is Europe up to the challenge?
NATO Took Some Knocks But Survives Its 70th Anniversary Party
NATO’s 70th turned out to be less like a birthday party and more a Thanksgiving dinner for a large dysfunctional family: Not all of them got on, a few snide remarks were made, but in the end everyone seemed to accept they’re stuck with each other. “We had a very successful meeting,” said an evidently relieved Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, citing the unity she had seen among the alliance’s 29 leaders. “So I’m very pleased.”
Emmanuel Macron's openness toward Russia is testing the patience of NATO allies
Paris (CNN) - Nobody likes to hear that an old friend is "brain dead," so perhaps it's not surprising that France's allies seem to be going through the seven stages of grief over Emmanuel Macron's pronouncement in the Economist last month that NATO is languishing.
What Does It Mean to Be a European Defense Company Today?
In many ways, defense firms in Europe should be pleased with the recent uptick in defense spending.
Calais: French asylum system out of gas or failure of the European asylum policy?
The Calais’ camp demolition operation that has begun on October 24th 2016 is the most significant ever conducted. It follows numerous failed or aborted attempts to dismantle the shanty town and relocalize its inhabitants.
From the German Question to the European Question
Are we returning to “The German Question”, which we thought had been dealt with at unification? Although “The German Question” has deep historical roots, its return is indicative of a European crisis: economic fractures, institutions in deadlock, relative withdrawal of France and the UK on serious Union debates. Only through increased European integration can we expect Germany to regain to a place which it can occupy comfortably.
From COP21 to COP22: Keeping up the Momentum
In December 2015, a new international climate agreement was adopted, paving the way for increased mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Nord Stream 2: May Cooler Heads Prevail
Since the announcement of the Nord Stream 2 project in June 2015, the debate around the benefits of this project for Europe is raging, putting forward political, economic and commercial arguments.
The Western Balkans : a touchstone for German and European foreign policy
Humanitarian exploit or failure? The refugee crisis in Germany and Europe
RAMSES 2017. A Fragmented World
RAMSES 2017. A Fragmented World, prepared by IFRI’s research team and selected external experts, offers an in-depth and up to date analysis of global geopolitics.
This 35th edition focuses on three key issues: the spread of jihadist terrorism, the Middle East’s disintegration, and doubts about the European project. With the world’s balance of power and economic foundations shifting, the next few months are likely to be decisive for our future. The growing diversity and complexity of our world is startling, which is why it is important to rethink our analyses and means of action.
The US Natural Gas Exports : New Rules on the European Gas Landscape
This study addresses the consequences of US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports towards Europe, in particular on the strategy of Russia, the EU’s main gas supplier.
France: Disenchantment in Slow Motion
In France, Europe basically expresses four objectives: peace, parity with Germany, economic development, and leveraging French power. But today, the feeling abounds that none of these objectives are really being achieved.
The European Union in the Fog: Building Bridges between National Perspectives on the European Union
The Building Bridges project looks at the national perspectives on the European Union. This publication gathers contributions from across the EU. It sheds light on Member States’ motivations to participate in the EU and views on its future. Accessible and analytical, this volume is an ideal reference guide for practitioners, experts, students and European citizens.
CETA: the Making of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement Between Canada and the EU
Once ratified, the Comprehensive and Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) could ultimately eliminate all tariff barriers between the European Union and Canada. CETA is also a new generation Free-Trade Agreement: it includes the opening of public procurement, the facilitation of cross investments and cooperation in the area of regulation. Its long negotiation process illustrated important changes that are happening in the way trade agreements are negotiated, both in Canada and in the EU.
Rushing to a deal on the UK could be ill-thought-out for the EU
European Defence: Minilateralism is not the enemy
To access the whole publication, please click on this link.
COP21 : Haro sur le charbon
Despite a landmark agreement on climate in December 2015, reducing the share of coal in the world energy mix will remain extremely difficult. This paper analyses five large consumers choices in terms of coal and clean coal technologies.
Defending Europe? A stocktaking of French and German Visions for European Defense
The aim of this study consists of taking stock of strategic thinking in France and Germany. More concretely, it intends to identify compatible and incompatible aspects, as well as the potential for compromise, in these national considerations on the future of CSDP and NATO. In so doing, it concentrates on five issues: strategic visions, threat perception and military doctrine; the institutional framework for European defense; military interventions; capabilities as well as the industrial dimension.
RAMSES 2016. Climat : une nouvelle chance ?
Written by Ifri's research team and its network of associates, the new RAMSES 2016 analyses geopolitics on a worldwide scale. The major theme of this 34th edition is Climate: A new chance? In addition, RAMSES 2016 tackles the insertion of Africa in globalization and the uncertainties of democracy today in post-industrial societies, but also in the South.
Electric Networks and Energy Transition in Europe
After a century of close development between power generation facilities and networks, the liberalisation of the electricity sector has broken this link in Europe. Long-distance transmission networks now play a key role in stimulating competition between generators by giving consumers access to remote power generation facilities.
EU Reform: Mapping out a state of flux
“EU Reform” is widely discussed across Europe but rarely defined. This report analyses how the 28 member states of the European Union understand “EU reform” and provides an insight into how their views might play out in debates on the future of the EU as well as on day-to-day politics.
How can Batteries support the EU Electricity Network?
Policy Report, Publication Insight_E
Lead Author: Bo Normark (KIC InnoEnergy), co-author: Aurélie Faure-Schuyer (Ifri),
Reviewers: Paul Deane (UCL) and Steve Pye (UCL)
L'échiquier numérique américain : Quelle place pour l'Europe ?
The United States has established itself as the indisputable global leader in the digital market followed by more interventionist actors such as Russia and China. Europe has fallen behind as it struggles to find its place in this crucial sector. The new European Commission must respond and provide Europe with tools to compete with the market's more dominant actors.
Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2026, Ifri partners with over 90 French and international companies and organizations.