South Lebanon: Crisis Scenarios Paris : Ifri, 2001. - 48 p. (Notes de l'Ifri, n° 36)

The two simultaneous wars –one led by the United States against terrorism since 9/11 and the other between the Israelis and the Palestinians– have turned away attention from another important threat at the Lebanon-Israel border.

25 years after the instauration by Israel of the so-called 'security zone', 'liberated' in May 2000, South Lebanon still is a vicious area where war can occur. The risks of an extension of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the Syrian-Lebanese theatre have become serious since Washington decided to count Hamas and Hezbollah among terrorist organizations.

This 'Note' tries to define the more credible scenarios for what could be called the 'Syrian-Lebanese-Israeli' triangle. It aims at identifying the threats that could damage a precarious equilibrium: an escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; an intensification of Lebanese opposition to the Syrian presence; a political crisis in Syria; or an extension of the war against terrorism to the whole region.