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Is Escalation Between France and Turkey in the Middle East and Beyond Inescapable?

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In recent years, France and Turkey have been on opposing sides relating to Middle East concerns. 

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The countries’ disagreements over situations in Syria, Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean, and lately the Caucasus, have escalated significantly, generating fears of a proxy conflict with direct military confrontation between the two North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members. Attempting to rally widespread European support, France assertively challenges the Turkish “neo-Ottoman” ambitions; while Paris is anxious of Ankara’s acts outside of Paris’s expectations for a historically narrowly defined Turkish national interests. In the medium-term, the two countries appear to be testing each other to redefine their respective zones of influence, adapting their foreign policy objectives in the turbulent dynamics of the post-Arab Spring era. This power competition resonates domestically, as both the French and the Turkish public are receptive to the developing negative narratives of “the other.”

 

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This content is available in English on Geneva Center of Security Policy website 

This content is available in Arabic :  هل التصعيد بين فرنسا وتركيا في الشرق األوسط وخارجه حتمي؟

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Dorothée SCHMID

Intitulé du poste

Responsable du programme Turquie/Moyen-Orient de l'Ifri

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Süleymaniye Mosque, Istanbul, Türkiye
Turkey/Middle East Program
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Ifri's Turkey/Middle East Program aims to provide expertise on the trends and developments in politics, societies and economies across the region.

The programme has the following objectives:

  • Proposing a new approach towards the MENA region through an analysis of local, regional, and international dynamics with the potential to guide and influence new policies.
  • Highlighting the role of foreign powers which have traditionally been present in the region and analyzing the new role taken on by emerging countries ;
  • Anticipating new directions and outlooks in each country.
  • Interpreting risks and potentials and putting forward new templates for analysis.

The programme has built a dense network of researchers and experts who provide expertise on the MENA region and working together on a range of crosscutting themes.

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Indonesia and the Palestinian Cause

Date de publication
25 July 2025
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During his inaugural presidential speech on October 20, 2024, Indonesia’s incumbent president, Prabowo Subianto, iterated certain principles central to the philosophical foundation of the Indonesian nation. He noted Indonesia’s longstanding foreign policy of non-alignment or “bebas dan aktif” (free and active) and its aversion to military pacts.

Daniel PETERSON
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Middle Power Lawfare : South Africa, International Justice, and the Gaza Crisis

Date de publication
21 July 2025
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The intensification of violence in Gaza following Hamas’s 7 October 2023 Al Aqsa Flood attack and Israel’s military response prompted a broader reassessment of global diplomacy. Longstanding geopolitical alignments were disrupted, and questions about humanitarian obligations, institutional accountability, and the limits of state conduct returned to the centre of international debate.

Gustavo DE CARVALHO
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Adıyaman, the “Ownerless City”: Story of a Political Emancipation

Date de publication
11 July 2025
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Over the past two years, the city of Adıyaman has made headlines for two major reasons: first, its devastation by the earthquake of February 6, 2023, which struck between Turkey and Syria, and second, its significant political shift following the municipal elections of March 31, 2024. 

Giulia FOURNIER
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The Evolving Role of Nuclear Rhetoric in Iran’s Strategic Calculus

Date de publication
03 July 2025
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How has the Iranian strategic discourse about nuclear weapons and deterrence evolved? 

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Franco_turkish rivalry
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Is Escalation Between France and Turkey in the Middle East and Beyond Inescapable?, from Ifri by
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