2019-2029: The World in 10 Years
The last four decades have witnessed the profound transformation of the very foundations of the international system: the globalization of trade, technical revolutions, the upheaval of the hierarchy of powers, the emergence of China, the explosion of the Middle-East, the mutation of conflicts and threats, climate concerns, etc.
This special issue of Politique étrangère celebrates the 40th anniversary of IFRI. It includes contributions by the best international specialists to clarify and shed light on the major trends affecting today’s effervescent world: Where is it taking us? What may happen on this global stage, in all its parts, over the next ten years?
How far is the world going to be “de-westernized”? Does modernity concentrate power, or dilute it? How should the advances of the international financial system be evaluated, and what are their limits? Can poverty be reduced further? Will the energy transition be successful? What forms will international violence take? What will the world’s population look like in 2029? Are new technologies redesigning new geopolitics? Is global trade hesitating between trade war or multilateralism? Is Europe undoing itself, or reconstructing itself? What is the economic and political future of Africa in all its pluralities? Is the Middle-East doomed to breakdown? Will Asia be the center of tomorrow’s world?
How is the world of 2029 being sketched out today?
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Between Concentration and Dispersion: A Promising Future for Power Relations, by Thomas Gomart
The Waning of Universalism, by Chantal Delsol
2029: TOWARD A NEW WORLD?
The Future of the International Monetary and Financial System, by Jean-Claude Trichet
International Trade Disagreements: Beyond Trump, by Sébastien Jean
Poverty and Inequality through 2030, by Ravi Kanbur
Possible Energy Transitions through 2029, by Adnan Z. Amin
Wars in the Next Decade, by Lawrence Freedman
After the Demographic Explosion, by Hervé Le Bras
When Technology Shapes the World..., by Jared Cohen
2029: WORLDS ADRIFT
Europe in 10 Years, by Nicole Gnesotto
The Africas of 2029, by Alioune Sall
The Middle East in 2029, by Fawaz A. Gerges
2029, the Great Asian Renaissance, by Kishore Mahbubani
A VIEW FROM HISTORY
Between the Lines of Questionable Battles, by Raymond Aron
This content is available in French : "L'éditorial de Politique étrangère, vol. 84, n° 1, printemps 2019"
This content is available in French : "Le dossier de presse de Politique étrangère, vol. 84, n° 1, printemps 2019"
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The Year He Woke
Vikas Swarup, an Indian writer and former diplomat, is the author of four novels, including Q & A (New York: Doubleday, 2005), which has been translated into 47 languages and adapted for the screen under the title Slumdog Millionaire.
Text published in Politique étrangère, Vol. 91, No. 2, 2026.
War and Technology: An Approaching Military Revolution?
Historically, technological change has altered how battles are fought but has not overturned the fundamental principles of war. However, three considerations may now represent an actual revolution: the recourse to tactical nuclear weapons, the development of software for “multi-domain operations,” and the prospect of general artificial intelligence. The organization of militaries and the use of force need to be rethought in this light.
War and Technology: An Approaching Military Revolution?
Historically, technological change has altered how battles are fought but has not overturned the fundamental principles of war. However, three considerations may now represent an actual revolution: the recourse to tactical nuclear weapons, the development of software for “multi-domain operations,” and the prospect of general artificial intelligence. The organization of militaries and the use of force need to be rethought in this light.
The Crises Testing Arms Control
The arms control system built during and after the Cold War is under enormous stress and is fraying at the edges. It once enabled significant improvements in international security but is in danger of not withstanding the resurgence of tensions in recent years. Urgent action is now needed to prevent the proliferation of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, as well as cluster bombs and anti-personnel mines.