2019-2029: The World in 10 Years
The last four decades have witnessed the profound transformation of the very foundations of the international system: the globalization of trade, technical revolutions, the upheaval of the hierarchy of powers, the emergence of China, the explosion of the Middle-East, the mutation of conflicts and threats, climate concerns, etc.
This special issue of Politique étrangère celebrates the 40th anniversary of IFRI. It includes contributions by the best international specialists to clarify and shed light on the major trends affecting today’s effervescent world: Where is it taking us? What may happen on this global stage, in all its parts, over the next ten years?
How far is the world going to be “de-westernized”? Does modernity concentrate power, or dilute it? How should the advances of the international financial system be evaluated, and what are their limits? Can poverty be reduced further? Will the energy transition be successful? What forms will international violence take? What will the world’s population look like in 2029? Are new technologies redesigning new geopolitics? Is global trade hesitating between trade war or multilateralism? Is Europe undoing itself, or reconstructing itself? What is the economic and political future of Africa in all its pluralities? Is the Middle-East doomed to breakdown? Will Asia be the center of tomorrow’s world?
How is the world of 2029 being sketched out today?
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Between Concentration and Dispersion: A Promising Future for Power Relations, by Thomas Gomart
The Waning of Universalism, by Chantal Delsol
2029: TOWARD A NEW WORLD?
The Future of the International Monetary and Financial System, by Jean-Claude Trichet
International Trade Disagreements: Beyond Trump, by Sébastien Jean
Poverty and Inequality through 2030, by Ravi Kanbur
Possible Energy Transitions through 2029, by Adnan Z. Amin
Wars in the Next Decade, by Lawrence Freedman
After the Demographic Explosion, by Hervé Le Bras
When Technology Shapes the World..., by Jared Cohen
2029: WORLDS ADRIFT
Europe in 10 Years, by Nicole Gnesotto
The Africas of 2029, by Alioune Sall
The Middle East in 2029, by Fawaz A. Gerges
2029, the Great Asian Renaissance, by Kishore Mahbubani
A VIEW FROM HISTORY
Between the Lines of Questionable Battles, by Raymond Aron
This content is available in French : "L'éditorial de Politique étrangère, vol. 84, n° 1, printemps 2019"
This content is available in French : "Le dossier de presse de Politique étrangère, vol. 84, n° 1, printemps 2019"
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A New Path for Europe
The construction of the European Union is historically inseparable from the emergence, at the end of World War II, of an Atlantic world dominated by the United States. Successive enlargements and the revision of U.S. policy are undermining the concepts upon which the European Union has been built since the fall of the USSR. It is undoubtedly time to return to a path of more diverse groupings, corresponding to the levels of commitment and the interests of the states of the Old Continent.
How Technology Is Reshaping the World Order
The central role of technology in the competition between the major powers is fueling an ever-more intense rivalry. Artificial intelligence is enabling large corporations to accrue unprecedented power, with consequences for states and even for international conflict. However, states do have tools at their disposal to regulate these developments. In this international competition, Europe has a strong hand, but must be prepared to play its cards in order to create a new kind of international cooperation.
Reflections on A Darkening World
The system that emerged after the Second World War to regulate international relations is now moribund. Russia and China may have weakened it, but it seems that Donald Trump’s United States may deliver the fatal blow. The prevailing atmosphere is one of power struggles, and the rise of nationalisms is fraught with danger. The artificial intelligence revolution also needs to be factored into this equation, as it has a strong bearing on how much power different players can exert. In this respect, Europe must ensure it does not get left behind.
1936-2026: 90th Anniversary of the Journal "Politique étrangère"
Founded in 1936 and published by the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), Politique étrangère, France’s longest-running journal of international relations, is set to publish a special issue in early June 2026. Bringing together leading contributors from France and abroad, this issue aims to offer a panorama of an uncertain world and its possible futures. In an unprecedented initiative, Politique étrangère will bring together a broad range of international contributions in an effort to capture an international scene that is at once open and fragmented in all its diversity and dynamism.