The 2026 State Elections in Baden-Württemberg: First Test For Chancellor Merz's Federal Government?
The state election in Baden-Wuerttemberg in March 2026 will be the first major test of public opinion for Chancellor Friedrich Merz's federal government. At the same time, Baden-Wuerttemberg is one of the federal states that—as an important location for the German automotive industry and its suppliers—is particularly affected by the transformation policy driven by climate change and the international conflict constellation.
Bundeswehr: From Zeitenwende (historic turning point) to Epochenbruch (epochal shift)
The Zeitenwende (historic turning point) announced by Olaf Scholz on February 27, 2022, is shifting into high gear. Financially supported by the March 2025 reform of Germany’s “debt break” and backed by a broad political and societal consensus to strengthen and modernize the Bundeswehr, Germany's military capabilities are set to rapidly increase over the coming years. Expected to assume a central role in the defense of the European continent in the context of changing transatlantic relations, Berlin’s military-political position on the continent is being radically transformed.
Germany and France now publicly display their disagreements over Macron's proposals
Friedrich Merz's government has criticized the idea of a joint European loan and the push for European preference in goods purchases advocated by Emmanuel Macron. These disagreements come on top of tensions over the Mercosur trade deal and how to use frozen Russian assets.
Merz’ European Policy-making: The End of the ‘German Vote’?
Friedrich Merz’s European ambition is to turn Germany, long seen as hesitant into a leading actor within the European Union (EU). To that end, he has pledged to end the “German vote,” a phenomenon that epitomizes the paradox of a country both indispensable and frequently absent from European decision-making.
Securing critical raw material (CRM) value chains – a prerequisite for Europe’s technological resilience
At the heart of economic security, technological resilience is a backbone of the European Union’s (EU) competitiveness. The EU’s energy and digital transitions depend on critical raw materials (CRM).
Reconciling competitiveness and demographic change: a Franco-German imperative
France and Germany are facing parallel demographic shifts that could reshape the future of their economies and their social models. These shifts reflect broader European patterns but are magnified by the central role both nations play in EU governance and competitiveness.
French-German future combat aircraft project on the brink of collapse
Eight years after Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel launched the SCAF, this symbol of European sovereignty in defense is on the verge of collapse. At issue are the demands of the project's main contractor, Dassault Aviation, which Berlin considers excessive, as well as political and strategic differences between France and Germany.
Imaginary and Reality of the Franco-German border: a Laboratory for Europe of tomorrow
In Europe, the question of borders is a central issue. According to the European Parliament, border regions cover around 40% of the European Union (EU) territory, concentrate 30% of its population and produce nearly a third of its gross domestic product.
Macron turns to Merz as French parliament nears collapse
The French president must now rely more than ever on Merz to make his voice heard in Europe.
PARIS – Emmanuel Macron will host German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on the Riviera on Thursday evening, hoping support from Berlin can bolster his standing in the EU as the French government edges towards collapse.
A Franco-German “Reset”? The Ambitions of the Franco-German Council of Ministers. Challenges of Joint Leadership in Europe
As a Catholic from the Rhineland, Friedrich Merz is heir to the CDU’s Franco-German policy, from Konrad Adenauer to Helmut Kohl and Wolfgang Schäuble. While Franco-German rhetoric and reflexes are deeply ingrained in him, their results must nevertheless be put into perspective.
Macron and Merz try to revive challenging French-German partnership in Berlin
The French president and the German chancellor met on Wednesday, July 23, to prepare for a joint cabinet meeting scheduled for August 29. From defense projects to trade negotiations, several disagreements remain.
Social Policies in Germany. Assessment of the “Traffic Light” Coalition and Prospects for the New Government
Notes du Cerfa, No. 188, Ifri, July 2025 — The defeat of the “traffic light” governing coalition in the snap parliamentary elections of February 2025 calls for an initial – necessarily selective – assessment of the social policies implemented during its term.
The “Huawei Saga” in Europe Revisited: German Lessons for the Rollout of 6G
While the European Union attempted to coordinate a collective response through its 5G Toolbox in Europe’s 5G infrastructure, member states diverged significantly in balancing political, economic, and technological considerations. Germany, despite its economic ties to China and status as Europe’s largest telecom market, only reached a tentative agreement in July 2024—one that appears largely symbolic.
“There is, however, a real sense of urgency,” around the Franco-German relationship, says Marie Krpata, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) and member of its Franco-German Relations Committee.
“Emmanuel Macron has only two years left to make progress on European files, while the far right lurks in the wings – in both Paris and Berlin.”
quoted by Laurent Geslin in Euractiv
Can France and Germany’s new love-fest survive their lingering differences?
Paris and Berlin have been at loggerheads for years, but things are at last looking up.
Germany 'back on track' says Merz, unveiling new coalition
Yinka Oyetade speaks to Jeanette Süß, Research Fellow on the Study Committee on Franco-German Relations at the French Institute of International Relations about the German coalition and the challenges faced by the new government.
The Franco-German Brigade and the Revival of European Defense
One thing has been clear since Donald Trump's return to the White House: the very existence of the European unification project is threatened. Unless it develops a sovereign defense policy to counter the war in Ukraine and the weakening of American security guarantees, the European Union will continue to see its internal cohesion and external attractiveness wane.
Friedrich Merz and the Zeitenwende 2.0. A “New Era” for Transatlantic Relations?
On February 23, 2025, almost 60 million voters were called upon to elect a new Bundestag. These elections will also give rise to a new government in Europe's largest economy.
After the Elections: Germany in Search of Shaken Stability?
With a voter turnout of 82.5%, Germany recorded its highest participation since 1987—an increase of 6.1 percentage points compared to 2021. As in the previous election, the high turnout particularly benefited the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which was able to mobilize many former non-voters. Many voters sought to punish the outgoing government with their ballots, as its approval rating had dropped to just 14% before the coalition broke apart in November 2024. Germany is now very likely heading toward a grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, with exploratory talks having begun on February 28.
Europe’s wake-up call
Internal disagreements are just as serious a problem as external pressure from the US and Russia
The Franco-German Brigade and the Revival of European Defense
One thing has been clear since Donald Trump's return to the White House: the very existence of the European unification project is threatened. Unless it develops a sovereign defense policy to counter the war in Ukraine and the weakening of American security guarantees, the European Union will continue to see its internal cohesion and external attractiveness wane.
Friedrich Merz and the Zeitenwende 2.0. A “New Era” for Transatlantic Relations?
On February 23, 2025, almost 60 million voters were called upon to elect a new Bundestag. These elections will also give rise to a new government in Europe's largest economy.
After the Elections: Germany in Search of Shaken Stability?
With a voter turnout of 82.5%, Germany recorded its highest participation since 1987—an increase of 6.1 percentage points compared to 2021. As in the previous election, the high turnout particularly benefited the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which was able to mobilize many former non-voters. Many voters sought to punish the outgoing government with their ballots, as its approval rating had dropped to just 14% before the coalition broke apart in November 2024. Germany is now very likely heading toward a grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, with exploratory talks having begun on February 28.
The German Greens as an Alliance Party: The End of an Illusion?
At the Wiesbaden Congress in November 2024, Robert Habeck, currently Minister for the Economy and Climate, was nominated as the Green Party’s candidate for the Chancellorship in the early parliamentary elections on February 23, 2025. The party, founded 45 years ago, is now firmly established in the German political landscape. Wishing to turn the page on an unloved ‘‘traffic light’’ coalition, the party is banking on a personal campaign and an optimistic discourse based on the energy transition and social justice.
The Rise of the AfD and the Choice of Radicalism
Founded in 2013, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has become increasingly radical as crises have unfolded. Since 2015-2016 and the massive influx of immigrants into Germany, it has positioned itself as a virulently anti-migrant party and continues to consolidate its foothold in the German political system, particularly in parliaments. While its roots are very strong in the eastern regions, where its main strongholds are located, it is also attracting more and more voters in the west, against an overall backdrop of normalization of the far right and a national context marked by strong economic and political destabilization.
The Liberal Democrats in the German Federal Elections: A Party Fighting for Survival
The Free Democratic Party FDP, in great difficulty ahead of the early elections in 2025, is trying to recover after the collapse of the coalition with the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and the Greens. Its wavering position between government and opposition has undermined its credibility, and it is struggling to surpass the 5% threshold.
Taking the Pulse: Has Political Deadlock in Member States Become a Strategic Problem for the EU?
At a pivotal moment for the EU, several of its member states are experiencing domestic political and economic crises. Is this hindering collective EU action in response to the challenges posed by Russia, China, and Trump’s administration?
The SPD in the Run-Up to the 2025 General Election: from Chancellor's Party to Junior Coalition Partner?
The 20th legislative period (2021-2024) came to an abrupt end in the Federal Republic, following the dismissal of Finance Minister and Vice-Chancellor of the Liberal Democratic Party FDP, Christian Lindner, by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, due to deep political disagreements, in November 2024.
The CDU in the 2025 Elections: A Road to the Chancellery, Paved with Challenges
After a legislative session in the opposition, the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU) looks set to win the snap elections in February 2025. It is very likely that the country’s future chancellor will be Friedrich Merz.
Germany in the Electoral Campaign to the Early Elections on February 23 - The Challenges of a high-risk Voting
One month before the early Federal Elections in Germany, which will take place on February 23, 2025, after the "Traffic light coalition" imploded on November 6, 2024, the political landscape in Germany appears to be relatively stable despite the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
70th Anniversary of the Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa). Genesis, History and Visions for Franco-German relations
The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) was created in 1954 by an inter-governmental agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and France, in order to raise awareness of Germany in France and analyze Franco-German relations, including in their European and international dimensions.
DOSSIER - 60th anniversary of the Elysée Treaty (1963) and implementation of the Treaty of Aachen (2019): where do Franco-German relations stand?
On January 23, 2023, France and Germany celebrated the 60th anniversary of the Élysée Treaty. This is an opportunity for us to analyze the state of relations between the two countries, and the contribution made by the Treaty of Aachen, which was added in 2019.
Thirty-five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall: what’s new in the East?
As we celebrate the 35th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 2024, let’s start from the premise that the Berlin Wall did not “fall” on the night of November 9, 1989.
State Elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg - Extreme Parties on the Rise?
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) became Germany's strongest political force in the regional elections in Thuringia and Saxony.
Ensuring a Fair Green Transition
“Humanity has opened the gates of hell”, stated UN Secretary-General António Guterres at the Climate Ambition Summit in September 2023, emphasising that we are currently on a path of global warming above 2.4°C or even 2.9°C.
Between „Strategic Autonomy” and „Zeitenwende”: The Importance of Trade Between The EU and Mercosur
This policy paper analyses the geopolitical and economic significance of the EU-Mercosur agreement for the European Union (EU) in the context of the EU’s new European Economic Security Strategy.
Neither Left nor Right, but Both? The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in the Wake of European Elections
The 2024 European elections not only provided the occasion for a new German party, the “Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht” (BSW), to emerge but also to obtain 6.2% of the vote.
France's Partner on a Pedestal: A View Driven by Pragmatism and Envy
This paper brings together contributions from a cross-section of EU member states and the Gallup World Poll survey on the question of how Germany is being viewed at this time of economic and political crisis.
Germany’s Strategy on Climate Foreign Policy: Balancing Sustainable Development and Energy Security
With the war in Ukraine, Germany’s “traffic light” coalition government has had to adapt its climate policy to the upheavals caused by this war, which has turned its economic, energy, and military model upside down. Against a backdrop of high energy costs and increasing calls for reshoring in Europe, German industry is looking at how to maintain its competitiveness while decarbonizing its industry.
How Can the Green Deal Adapt to a Brutal World?
The European Green Deal has not been planned for the current extraordinarily deteriorated internal and external environment. Russia’s war in Ukraine, higher interest rates, inflation, strained public finances, weakened value chains, and lack of crucial skills pose unprecedented challenges.
At the Sorbonne, Macron and Scholz pass the remedial oral
From the cupola of the great amphitheater of the Sorbonne, the five large medallions in monochrome representing the sciences, letters, law, medicine and theology will judge the event. Sunday January 22, in the morning, in one of the oldest universities on the continent (founded in 1253), the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz must meet Emmanuel Macron, where the French President made his great speech on Europe in 2017.
French-German friendship ‘still alive’ as Macron meets Scholz amid tensions
Two leaders under pressure to repair relations after rifts over defence, energy and China. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, hosted the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, for lunch on Wednesday as they sought to iron out significant differences on energy and defence that have weakened their relationship at a time of war in Ukraine.
An Engine Replacement Could Kill Europe’s Huge F-35 Plans
If the decision to replace the engine for the F-35A is implemented, countries flying F-35s will find themselves forced into unforeseen and overly complicated supply chains.
France welcomes Germany’s new ‘pro-European’ coalition agreement
The coalition deal struck between three parties that will form Germany’s next government is very much in line with France’s own ambitions and priorities, including its vision of a more federal EU.
Business as Usual for Next Franco-German Couple, Despite Sticking Points
While some argue that the next Franco-German power couple could be business as usual, there are some potential sticking points ahead.
Germany's FDP holds Strong Cards in Post-Election Haggling
Buoyant from its best election result in 10 years, Germany's liberal FDP party looks set to play a outsized role in coalition negotiations to form the next government.
Armin Laschet: Merkel’s heir apparent?
Angela Merkel has governed Germany for 16 years and proven a reliable ally both in Europe and for the world. Will her party colleague hoping to succeed her follow in her footsteps or diverge from her path in order to forge his own legacy?
The end of the Merkel-Macron era — a mediocre legacy?
German Chancellor Merkel has met with French President Macron in what could be her final working visit to France. Some analysts say their cooperation should have produced more results.
France prepares for Departure of Sometimes Reluctant Partner and Rival Merkel
Macron set to become the uncontested leader of Europe with German chancellor’s exit. Chancellor Angela Merkel was not naturally inclined to focus on Franco-German relations. “She comes from the former East Germany, and her experience was of east bloc countries, especially Russia, ” says Sabine Rau, Paris bureau chief for the German public television network WRD.
Germany calls for closer cooperation with France over security threats
German Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has called for closer bilateral cooperation with France in light of the tense security situation in Europe marked by the Russian “threat”, the rise of China and spreading “Islamist terrorism” in the Sahel region.
Russia’s spat with EU puts relations into deep-freeze
Kremlin stance is blow to European countries which favour outreach to Moscow. Russia’s combative treatment of the EU’s top diplomat during a landmark trip there has triggered a political outcry — but little expectation that the European bloc will end divisions over how to handle the Kremlin.
Merkel and Macron betray weakness with cautious Aachen treaty
When Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron sign a new Franco-German treaty in the historic city of Aachen on Tuesday, there will be much soaring rhetoric about the deepening ties between the two countries. To critics, though, the Treaty of Aachen is thin gruel. Anyone hoping for a new, tighter alliance between France and Germany, and for signs that the two countries might once again drive European integration, will be disappointed.
An Architect of the Latest Greek Bailout Navigates Germany’s Dual Roles
When the German Parliament set aside its objections and voted on Wednesday to approve a bailout for Greece, the chief proponent was both an architect of the deal and one of those raising fundamental questions about it: Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble.
Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2026, Ifri partners with over 90 French and international companies and organizations.
