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Russia: Can Economic Difficulties Weaken the Political System?

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Russie.Eurasie.Visions
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Year after year, Russian liberal politicians and experts have been promising radical changes in Russia’s economics and politics, which, they believed, would lead to the collapse of the Putin regime.

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Saint Petersburg, August 2020: a protester holds a poster "When will Russia come out of coma?" at a rally.
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Domestic protests, Western sanctions, oil price fluctuations and public discontent caused by a drop in living standards are only some of the causes that could lead to such a development. However, neither the Covid-19 pandemic, instability in the global energy markets nor massive street protests earlier this year managed to undermine the foundations of the Russian political system. The reasons for their failing to do so were obvious: the Russian economy is far from being the disaster that foreign observers like to portray; people are willing to survive by relying on themselves alone; and the protests in Putin’s Russia are more a way to express personal opinion than a tool to achieve the goals of masses of dissatisfied citizens. The last two decades indicate that neither political liberties nor opportunities for business are primary values for Russians. Russian society does not reject the apparent tightening of the regime, it does not demand that living standards be maintained, and it does not close its ranks in response to repression of dissenters. Meanwhile, Western economic sanctions have made almost no impact on government bureaucracy, since these days it prefers to concentrate its business domestically while reducing its contacts with the outside world to a minimum.

Let’s be frank: Russia is not a “slightly distorted” version of a Western nation. Its “uniqueness” is too profound for developing policy based on expectations that one day Russia becomes a “normal country”. Instead, Moscow’s negative impact on Western nations and their allies should be strictly limited while Russia is left to go on its own path until it reaches an economic dead end and finally realizes the need for changes—as happened to the USSR due to its economic and technological failures.

Vladislav Inozemtsev, PhD, is a Russian economist, and founder and director of the Moscow-based Centre for Research on Post-Industrial Societies since 1996.

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979-10-373-0396-7

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Russia: Can Economic Difficulties Weaken the Political System?

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Russie, Eurasie, Carte
Russia/Eurasia Center
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Founded in 2005 within Ifri, the Russia/Eurasia Center conducts research and organizes debates on Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. Its goal is to understand and anticipate the evolution of this complex and rapidly changing geographical area in order to enrich public discourse in France and Europe and to assist in strategic, political, and economic decision-making.

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How the Russian Army Changed its Concept of War, 1993-2022

Date de publication
23 May 2023
Accroche

The traditional and high-intensity war that has occurred in Ukraine since Russia decided to invade raises a key issue: did post-soviet Russian strategic thought really prepare Russia for waging this war?

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Russia's Nuclear Deterrence Put to the Test by the War in Ukraine

Date de publication
06 October 2025
Accroche

From the outset of its “special military operation” (SVO) against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russia, which possesses one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals, has adopted aggressive deterrence measures and a resolutely menacing rhetorical stance.

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Moldova's Crucial Parliamentary Election. What's at Stake?

Date de publication
22 September 2025
Accroche

On the occasion of Moldova’s National Day, August 27, 2025, Chișinău hosted a high-level European delegation composed of Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk, who sought to reaffirm their support for the country’s sovereignty and pro-European course. This unprecedented and highly symbolic visit took place at a pivotal moment. Moldova is preparing for decisive parliamentary elections on September 28, whose stakes extend far beyond the national framework.

Florent PARMENTIER
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War as Social Elevator: The Socioeconomic Impact of Russian Military Keynesianism

Date de publication
19 June 2025
Accroche

In order to finance its war effort, the Russian state has spent substantial sums of money and implemented a form of “military Keynesianism” that is transforming society at both the socioeconomic and cultural levels. This has partially rebalanced the wide disparities in wealth, levels of consumption, and social prestige in Russian society by granting significant financial and symbolic advantages to peripheral Russia, which has long been overlooked by the central government. 

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Russia: Can Economic Difficulties Weaken the Political System?