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Strait of Hormuz: The War of Nerves

Politique étrangère Articles from Politique Etrangère
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Politique étrangère, Vol. 86, No. 2, Summer 2021
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In the event of a major conflict, Iran could decide to close the Strait of Hormuz, which would cause a global energy crisis.

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La République islamique a les moyens militaires d'imposer temporairement un tel blocus, mais sa capacité à le faire durer pose question. Pour faire face à l'escalade qu'engendrerait cette décision, elle devrait sans doute recourir aux autres éléments de sa « triade dissuasive » : le terrorisme et l'embrasement régional par l'intermédiaire de ses proxies.

Morgan Paglia est doctorant à l'Institut catholique de Paris et à l'École pratique des hautes études.

Article publié dans Politique étrangère, vol. 86, n° 2, été 2021

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Morgan PAGLIA

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Former Research Fellow, Security Studies Center

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Security Studies Center
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Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

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Taking the Pulse: Enough with the Annual NATO Summits, Already?

Date de publication
16 July 2026
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Over the past ten years, NATO has held almost as many summits as it did during the entirety of the Cold War. Are they still useful, or is it time to stop holding annual meetings?

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How does France’s nuclear deterrent contribute to the defense of Europe?

Date de publication
10 July 2026
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France’s nuclear deterrent, serving first and foremost to defend France’s vital interests, also contributes to the defense of Europe. This contribution has been recognized within the North Atlantic Alliance since 1974, but remains little known. In a speech closely followed by France’s European partners and its adversaries alike, President Emmanuel Macron announced a new concept for French nuclear deterrence: “forward deterrence” (dissuasion avancée). This article aims to explain the origins of this concept, outline its main pillars, and describe the partnerships that are sought. It then discusses the relationship with the U.S. doctrine of “extended deterrence”, and finally offers some ethical considerations.

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Fury from the Skies. A Strategic Analysis of Air Campaign against Iran

Date de publication
07 May 2026
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What is the outcome of Operations Roaring Lion (RL) and Epic Fury (EF), launched by Israel and the United States against the Islamic Republic of Iran on February 28, 2026?

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Finland: The Ally Who Came in from the Cold

Date de publication
10 April 2026
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Among all European countries, Finland is perhaps the one whose strategic culture and military model have changed the least since the end of the Cold War. Built after the end of the Second World War to deter a potential new Soviet invasion, this model enabled Finland to serve as an example of European rearmament.

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politique étrangère, asie de  l'est face a la chine, que faire de la dette couverture
Morgan PAGLIA, « Strait of Hormuz: The War of Nerves », Politique étrangère, Articles from Politique Etrangère, Ifri, 7 June 2021.
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