5G and the US-China Tech Rivalry – a Test for Europe’s Future in the Digital Age SWP Comment, 2019/C 29, June 2019

Until late last year, most Europeans only knew Huawei as one of many smartphone manufacturers gaining ground in stores across the continent. But in recent months, the tech giant has turned into a symbol of a high-stakes wrestling match between the world’s premier superpower, the United States, and its increasingly ambitious and capable challenger, China. Indeed, the impending rollout of 5G infrastructure has become a key battleground in a broader struggle for control over the industries of the future. Europe has meanwhile been caught on its back foot and urgently needs to develop a strategy to not only guide it through the current 5G debate, but also the tech rivalries that are still to come.

With dramatically higher data transfer speeds and decreased latency, 5G carries the promise of revolutionizing all spheres of daily life: from self-driving vehicles to health­care to the “internet of things” and the digi­tali­zation of industrial production processes and so-called smart cities. Huawei currently leads the field in 5G infrastructure and as such, for the first time in modern history, China is in a prime position to lead the world in the rollout of a potentially game-chang­ing technology. This prospect has caused fierce pushback from Washington and jit­ters across Europe and much of the West.

For months, the United States has been pressuring its European allies to enact an outright ban of Huawei from the rollout of 5G infrastructure on the continent. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo even warn­ed that allies who deal with the com­pany will no longer be privy to American intelligence. China, in turn, threatened retaliation against European countries inclined to give in to US demands. China’s ambassador to the Euro­pean Union (EU), Zhang Ming, spoke of “serious consequences” for eco­nomic and scientific cooperation, whereas China’s am­bassador to Poland warned of “steep costs” for Poland if it decided to ban Huawei.

Caught between the two powers, Europe’s vulnerability is clearly visible: On the one hand, European countries depend on Chi­na’s central position in the value chain for information and communication technology (ICT), in particular regarding hardware; on the other hand, the United States dominates software development and remains Europe’s prime security guarantor.

Complicating matters further, the Trump administration announced on May 15 that Huawei would figure on the “Entity List” of the US Department of Commerce, effectively placing sanctions on the Chinese tech giant and banning all access to US technology (from microchips to critical software). This decision constitutes a major blow to the com­pany that has the potential to severely affect its operations. It is also a clear signal to Western allies that the United States is serious in its campaign to stop Huawei’s grow­ing influence. For its part, China has responded with its own broadly defined “unreliable entities list” of countries, com­panies, or persons that “seriously damage the legitimate interests” of Chinese com­panies.

In this situation, Europeans risk becoming mere objects in a geopolitical struggle for technological leadership that will significantly shape our future. The defense of European interests and values in this context will require Europeans to develop a common political strategy – based on sound principles and objective criteria – for navigating the geopolitical conflicts that new technology will bring. The 5G debate adds a sense of urgency to this quest.