Summer witnessed a sharp escalation in the Russia-Europe confrontation, amidst continued partial closure of Hormuz and major extreme weather events. Oil and gas prices are high, and the price and supply outlooks for Europe this winter are very challenging for oil products, LNG and possibly, electricity markets which see growing contamination from the Hormuz crisis and growing risks of disbalances. Moreover, the phase-out of Russian gas supplies comes with renewed risks. While weather and climate are major uncertain forces of high impact, this discussion will build on the assumption that geopolitics are likely to worsen further and explore how the EU could brace for a storm.

Since the end of the Cold War, the number of US nuclear weapons stationed in Europe has fallen more than seventy-fold, yet their presence in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey remains a quiet pillar of NATO's deterrence posture. This "nuclear sharing" arrangement, central to the Alliance since its founding, has long been contested by public opinion, political parties, and civil society across Europe, without ever being abandoned by host governments. This paradox lies at the heart of the seminar: why does such an unpopular policy persist?

As part of the intelligence-focused BBS, organized in partnership with the Intelligence College in Europe, Ifri welcomes Mr. Philipp Wolff, Coordinator of the German Federal Intelligence services at the Federal Chancellery.