The 2016 German White Paper. The consolidation of the “Munich consensus” and persisting questions
The 2016 White Paper on security policy and the future of the Bundeswehr is testament to Berlin’s declared will to play a more active role internationally, to assume more responsibility and to provide leadership in close concertation with its partners in Europe and the world.
This policy approach is nowadays labeled “Munich consensus” in reference to a number of speeches by high-ranking German officials at the annual security conference held in Bavaria’s capital. At the same time, Berlin stays true to itself and bets on multilateralism, the comprehensive approach and insists on the idea that the Bundeswehr is just one instrument among others of German security policy (and not necessarily the most appropriate one under all circumstances).
Unsurprisingly, however, a number of questions remain even after the new White Paper’s publication. Although the text clearly is a step forward for German security policy, putting into practice the newly declared ambitions will require measures well beyond consolidating the “Munich consensus” in a strategy document. This pertains to the conditions under which the Bundeswehr can be sent abroad, and notably in the case of scenarios lacking a clear legal basis. But this also concerns the question of whether there is enough political will to back up these new ambitions financially.
This paper is published in French: "Le Livre blanc allemand 2016. La consolidation du « consensus de Munich » et des questions qui persistent"
Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programsFind out more
Discover all our analysesUnder construction: Europe’s economic repositioning in a fragmented international order
„Under Destruction“– this was this year’s motto at the Munich Security Conference. A motto that applies both to security and economy in an increasingly fragile international system. In 2024, Mario Draghi’s report on the EU’s competitiveness rang the alarm bell: Europe is slipping behind the US and China, European companies struggle with Brussels' bureaucracy, and the internal market is too fragmented. However, two years later only about 15 % of his recommendations were implemented: the wake-up call was not heard.
Germany in the Shadow of the United States, Russia, and China – Systemic Paradigm Shifts
Since reunification, Germany has built its prosperity on an international order based on free trade, multilateralism, and geopolitical stability. This model relied on three relationships considered complementary: U.S. military protection, Russian energy supplies, and economic integration with China. For several decades, Berlin viewed these interdependencies as factors contributing to peace, growth, and security.
France and EU Enlargement: From Strategic Hesitation to a Geopolitical Shift
Paris has come a long way in its approach to enlarging the European Union. However, French support remains fragile, due in part to a lack of public support.
Reviving the German Economy: Balancing Economic, Social, and Defense Priorities
Germany is facing fundamental challenges to its economic and social model and is seeking a new course. The German post-war model was hugely successful, leading to economic strength and prosperity over many decades, but now it is steadily faltering. The previously latent fear of deindustrialization is becoming more concrete, particularly due to the weakening of a key sector: the automotive industry.