Taking the Pulse: Does France's Political Crisis Weaken Europe's Geopolitical Hand?
While the EU tries to navigate a myriad international challenges, France is experiencing historic political disarray. What impact will instability in Paris have on Europe's geostrategic capacity?
- Contribution of Paul Maurice, Secretary General of the Study Committee on Franco-German Relations, Institut Français des Relations Internationales (IFRI).
The French political crisis weakens the EU's strategic cohesion as it disrupts the Franco-German relationship, recently revitalized by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron. The Franco-German Council of Ministers held in Toulon at the end of August set in motion numerous concrete projects for the future of Europe and its geopolitical priorities: security, defense, energy, enlargement, and strategic autonomy. Yet paralysis in Paris deprives Berlin of a partner capable of making decisive strategic choices.
Facing the war in Ukraine, an aggressive Russia, an assertive China, and a less reliable United States, Europe needs a functional Franco-German partnership to maintain a coherent diplomatic line. Without political stability in Paris, joint initiatives—such as the Franco-German Defense and Security Council or major European industrial programs (including the Future Combat Air System and Main Ground Combat System)—risk stagnating.
Berlin could find itself compelled to act alone or seek other alliances, thereby weakening the EU's collective ability to speak with one voice.
[...]
- Text published on the Carnegie Europe website.
Available in:
Themes and regions
Share
Author(s)
Paul MAURICE
Secretary General of the Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa), Ifri
Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programs
The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa)
The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) was created in 1954 by an inter-governmental agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and France, in order to raise awareness of Germany in France and analyze Franco-German relations, including in their European and international dimensions. In its conferences and seminars, which bring together experts, political leaders, senior decision-makers and representatives of civil society from both countries, Cerfa develops the Franco-German debate and stimulates political proposals. It regularly publishes studies through two collections: Cerfa notes and studies as well as Franco-German visions.
Cerfa maintains close relations with the network of German foundations and think tanks. In addition to its research and debate activities, Cerfa promotes the emergence of a new Franco-German generation through original cooperation programs. This is how in 2021-2022, Cerfa led a program on multilateralism with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Paris. This program is aimed at young professionals from both countries interested in the issues of multilateralism in the context of their activities. It covered a wide range of themes relating to multilateralism, such as international trade, health, human rights and migration, non-proliferation and disarmament. Previously, Cerfa had participated in the Franco-German future dialogue, co-led with the DGAP from 2007 to 2020, and supported by the Robert Bosch Foundation and the Daniel Vernet group (formerly the Franco-German Reflection Group) which was founded in 2014 upon the initiative of the Genshagen Foundation.
Find out more
Discover all our analyses
Reviving the German Economy: Balancing Economic, Social, and Defense Priorities
Germany is facing fundamental challenges to its economic and social model and is seeking a new course. The German post-war model was hugely successful, leading to economic strength and prosperity over many decades, but now it is steadily faltering. The previously latent fear of deindustrialization is becoming more concrete, particularly due to the weakening of a key sector: the automotive industry.
Entry into force of the EU-Mercosur agreement: last act of an endless drama for Germany?
At the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 20, 2026, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, stated that "geopolitical shocks can and must serve as opportunity for Europe".
German-Indian Relations: a Partnership based on values or on interests?
In recent years, virtually no other Asian country has seen such a rise in prominence in German foreign policy as India.
The 2026 State Elections in Baden-Württemberg: First Test For Chancellor Merz's Federal Government?
The state election in Baden-Wuerttemberg in March 2026 will be the first major test of public opinion for Chancellor Friedrich Merz's federal government. At the same time, Baden-Wuerttemberg is one of the federal states that—as an important location for the German automotive industry and its suppliers—is particularly affected by the transformation policy driven by climate change and the international conflict constellation.