Taking the Pulse: Does France's Political Crisis Weaken Europe's Geopolitical Hand?
While the EU tries to navigate a myriad international challenges, France is experiencing historic political disarray. What impact will instability in Paris have on Europe's geostrategic capacity?
- Contribution of Paul Maurice, Secretary General of the Study Committee on Franco-German Relations, Institut Français des Relations Internationales (IFRI).
The French political crisis weakens the EU's strategic cohesion as it disrupts the Franco-German relationship, recently revitalized by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron. The Franco-German Council of Ministers held in Toulon at the end of August set in motion numerous concrete projects for the future of Europe and its geopolitical priorities: security, defense, energy, enlargement, and strategic autonomy. Yet paralysis in Paris deprives Berlin of a partner capable of making decisive strategic choices.
Facing the war in Ukraine, an aggressive Russia, an assertive China, and a less reliable United States, Europe needs a functional Franco-German partnership to maintain a coherent diplomatic line. Without political stability in Paris, joint initiatives—such as the Franco-German Defense and Security Council or major European industrial programs (including the Future Combat Air System and Main Ground Combat System)—risk stagnating.
Berlin could find itself compelled to act alone or seek other alliances, thereby weakening the EU's collective ability to speak with one voice.
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- Text published on the Carnegie Europe website.
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