China's Two-Track Foreign Policy: From Ambiguous to Clear-Cut Positions
This analysis examines the current ambiguities, priorities and approaches of Chinese foreign policy from a practitioner’s perspective, taking into account experiences of Beijing-based diplomats (interviews conducted in 2011 and 2012), in addition to recent Chinese foreign policy positions and official communications.
It leads to the following conclusions:
- The Chinese position on many foreign policy issues (climate change, nuclear proliferation, etc.) is hard to identify, even by practitioners in regular contact with Chinese diplomacy.
- If ambiguity remains, it is not only because of strategic opacity; on a majority of issues, China has not clearly decided on a position.
- Depending on the issue at stake, China adopts different foreign policy approaches. Two main approaches can be identified: when “core interests” are involved, China has a clear position and may adopt a more proactive foreign policy if needed. For other interests, the Chinese position is often undecided, and remains flexible depending on situational changes. In these cases, China adopts a passive foreign policy approach.
- Rhythm and relationship to time also differs according to this divide: China’s diplomacy tends to be much more anticipative and its decision-making process faster and more streamlined when dealing with “core interests” than with other interests.
- Lately, China’s definition of “core interests” is enlarging (inclusion of South China sea, of economic interests in general terms, etc.). This certainly reflects a reorientation of China’s foreign policy, but not a turning point.
- China’s foreign policy is likely to remain based on these two different approaches in the short and medium run, for several reasons: it is in China’s interest; domestic and international pressures for a more proactive strategy are limited; current foreign policy institutional mechanisms as well as the absence of clear-cut ideological foundations prevent the emergence of a more consistent strategy and; above all, the central government’s top priority remains domestic stability.
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China's Two-Track Foreign Policy: From Ambiguous to Clear-Cut Positions
Alice EKMAN
Ancienne Responsable des activités Chine, Centre Asie
Center for Asian Studies
Asia is a nerve center for multiple global economic, political and security challenges. The Center for Asian Studies provides documented expertise and a platform for discussion on Asian issues to accompany decision makers and explain and contextualize developments in the region for the sake of a larger public dialogue.
The Center's research is organized along two major axes: relations between Asia's major powers and the rest of the world; and internal economic and social dynamics of Asian countries. The Center's research focuses primarily on China, Japan, India, Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific, but also covers Southeast Asia, the Korean peninsula and the Pacific Islands.
The Centre for Asian Studies maintains close institutional links with counterpart research institutes in Europe and Asia, and its researchers regularly carry out fieldwork in the region.
The Center organizes closed-door roundtables, expert-level seminars and a number of public events, including an Annual Conference, that welcome experts from Asia, Europe and the United States. The work of Center’s researchers, as well as that of their partners, is regularly published in the Center’s electronic journal Asie.Visions.
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