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The Indo-Pacific and Trump II. In Uncle Sam’s brutal embrace

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Asie Visions
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Under the direction of Marc JULIENNE
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In this collective analysis, the research team of the Center for Asian Studies presents a synthetic and non-exhaustive assessment of the relations taking shape between the United States under the Trump II administration and some of the main players in the Indo-Pacific.

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Tokyo, Japon - 18 novembre 2024 : Donald Trump sur la couverture du numéro japonais de NEWSWEEK © Hiroshi-Mori-Stock/Shutterstock
Tokyo, Japan - 18 November 2024 : Donald Trump on the cover of the Japanese edition of NEWSWEEK © Hiroshi-Mori-Stock/Shutterstock
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Under the Trump II administration, US strategy in the Indo-Pacific is likely to be part of a bipartisan continuum, marked by strategic competition with China. The emphasis will be on economic pressure, notably via new trade sanctions, and increased military and technological engagement to counter Beijing. Washington’s allies and partners in the region, such as Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia, will continue to be mobilized to strengthen their posture against China, while pressure to increase their military spending and purchase US armaments will continue.

However, external factors such as political instability in South Korea and rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait could complicate the implementation of this strategy. In Southeast Asia, the delicate balance between economic dependence on China and security provided by the United States remains a major line of tension.

In sum, the Trump II administration is likely to pursue a determined, sometimes brutal, policy of engagement with its partners in the Indo-Pacific, while stepping up pressure on Beijing and adapting its priorities to emerging geopolitical challenges.

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979-10-373-0973-0

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The Indo-Pacific and Trump II. In Uncle Sam’s brutal embrace

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Author(s)
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Center for Asian Studies
Accroche centre

Asia is a nerve center for multiple global economic, political and security challenges. The Center for Asian Studies provides documented expertise and a platform for discussion on Asian issues to accompany decision makers and explain and contextualize developments in the region for the sake of a larger public dialogue.

The Center's research is organized along two major axes: relations between Asia's major powers and the rest of the world; and internal economic and social dynamics of Asian countries. The Center's research focuses primarily on China, Japan, India, Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific, but also covers Southeast Asia, the Korean peninsula and the Pacific Islands. 

The Centre for Asian Studies maintains close institutional links with counterpart research institutes in Europe and Asia, and its researchers regularly carry out fieldwork in the region.

The Center organizes closed-door roundtables, expert-level seminars and a number of public events, including an Annual Conference, that welcome experts from Asia, Europe and the United States. The work of Center’s researchers, as well as that of their partners, is regularly published in the Center’s electronic journal Asie.Visions.

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In October 2024, the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi initiated a thaw in relations between the two Asian powers. Has India's high level of economic dependence on China played an important role in bringing about this diplomatic shift?

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France and the Philippines, two Indo-Pacific nations, can capitalize on their shared interests, needs, and expertise in maritime security and governance, ultimately fostering strategic rapprochement.

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France’s maritime security cooperation in the Pacific

Date de publication
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Tokyo, Japan - 18 November 2024 : Donald Trump on the cover of the Japanese edition of NEWSWEEK © Hiroshi-Mori-Stock/Shutterstock

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The Indo-Pacific and Trump II. In Uncle Sam’s brutal embrace