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United States of America

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Despite polarized domestic politics and social tensions, the United States remains a major player in international relations, on the economic, military and diplomatic levels.

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Date de publication
December 2025

New Cold War? What New Cold War? Confronting the Geoeconomic Fragmentation Narrative with the Data

Accroche

It has become widely accepted that the world economy should be seen as increasingly shaped by forces of fragmentation, resulting from geopolitical tensions. This article takes another look at this narrative, using international trade data. While an aggregate analysis is consistent with a new Cold War narrative, whereby international trade is increasingly seen as split into two blocs, this is only a mix of very different outcomes. Far from being a widespread trend, geoeconomic fragmentation of trade flows is only significant in “hotspots”: Russia's foreign trade and China-US bilateral exchanges, and the impact is massive in these cases. Outside these “hotspots”, there is no tangible sign that geopolitical tensions have been shaping international trade patterns in terms of blocs, nor is there any hint of a trend toward nearshoring – to the contrary, in fact.

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Related centers and programs
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Illustration Programme Amériques
Americas Program
Accroche centre

Ifri's work on the Americas region focuses mainly on the United States. Indeed, for more than 20 years, Ifri's Americas Program has provided keys to understanding American society and domestic policy while shedding light on developments in the country's foreign policy, including transatlantic relations and trade issues. 

 

Since 2023, a specific axis on Latin America structures more actively Ifri's research on this region.

 

Ifri's Canada program was active in 2015 and 2016.

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