Thanks to strong economic growth, poverty has tended to fall worldwide. But the trend is not sufficient to eradicate poverty by 2030. For this, growth would have to rise further and inequalities fall. Non-economic dimensions of well-being, such as education and health, also need to be taken into account. This assumes that governments in particular have the capacity to invest in public infrastructures.

Renewable energies are experiencing rapid growth, due not only to their limited impact on the environment but also to shrinking costs. To fight climate change, new investments in low carbon technologies are necessary. Apart from its positive aspects, the energy transition carries risks, notably geopolitical. The notion of energy security will be profoundly modified. These risks can be anticipated and managed.

Forecasting in areas of strategy is particularly delicate as predictions may impact the course of events. While several major trends in the evolution of conflicts during the next decade can be identified, precise forecasts are impossible. Yet one thing is certain: in the next 10 years, decision-makers face unknown risks of significant consequence.

Demographic forecasting is not an exact science. UN projections, which suggest that the world population may rise to 11.2 billion in 2100, could be overestimates. Indeed, fertility could fall more rapidly and life expectancy may rise less than expected. The Sahel is set to experience the most spectacular demographic explosion, but this will not necessarily lead to massive migration to Europe.