The United States in Central Asia: A Fleeting Return?
The chaotic retreat of the United States from Afghanistan in August 2021 might lead to an expectation of a lasting loss of influence in central Asia.
The Sino-Russian Partnership: Assumptions, Myths and Realities
When Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin announced a “no limits friendship” at their February 2022 summit, the message was that Beijing and Moscow had reached a new peak in relations.
Macron pirouettes on Russia to the strains of ‘Churchill and Chamberlain’
President Emmanuel Macron’s nuanced position on the war in Ukraine is part and parcel of yet another French specificity, an attitude towards Russia which is unique in Europe. Macron prides himself on being a moderate among western warmongers.
The Technology Policies of Digital Middle Powers
Digital technology is an element of power in the international system as well as an area for competition among countries. The study provides a qualitative comparison of the technology policies of nine of the digital middle powers: Brazil, India, Israel, Japan, Kenya, Nigeria, Russia, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. It seeks to reflect the diversity of national technology policies, as well as to identify those countries’ convergences and divergences with Europe, the United States and China.
One Year of War in Ukraine: Where Do the Russian People Stand?
The overwhelming majority of the Russian population, having been fed Kremlin propaganda for years, approves of the war in Ukraine.
Freedom, EU, NATO: Ukrainian Society Has Made its Choice
The Ukrainian resistance should be seen in its long-term context, starting with independence in 1991, and confirmed by the events of 2014.
How will it end? No easy answers over Russia's war on Ukraine
The Kremlin wanted Russia's invasion of Ukraine to yield a lightning victory, but 12 months on the war is dragging into a stalemate with neither side achieving military breakthrough nor prepared to agree a settlement based on the status quo.
What Macron's 'Security Guarantees' Mean for Ukraine War
Ukraine is facing a grim festive period. Civilians are hunkered down in below-freezing conditions with periodic power as Russian missiles and drones continue Moscow's punishing infrastructure offensive. Ukrainian troops, bogged down by mud, are still pushing forwards gradually in the south and northeast, while defenders around Bakhmut are locked in hellish combat with Russian regulars and mercenaries.
A conversation between Dmytro Kuleba and Thierry de Montbrial, World Policy Conference 2022, Abu Dhabi
Dialogue between Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, and Thierry de Montbrial, founder and president of Ifri and the World Policy Conference, held in Abu Dhabi (Dec. 11), on the occasion of the 15th edition of the World Policy Conference.
Economic Constraint and Ukraine's Security Policy
Since winning the 2010 presidential elections in Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych has worked hard to repair Kyiv's relationship with Moscow.
Nordstream: Just-in-time?
Last week the gritty Russian/Ukrainian gas relationship was back in the press. This time the issue appeared to be Ukraine’s efforts to secure lower prices for its consumers - perhaps even on a par with Russia’s domestic consumers. The Ukrainians must surely know that to qualify for those kinds of special prices available previously only to politically compliant neighbors - Ukraine would have to return to some form of pre-Orange Revolution relationship with Mother Russia.
Russian Gas Diplomacy
Thank goodness our early warning systems during the cold war were not structured so we could see the flash at the same time we heard the warning. On Monday, the Russians notified the Europeans under an “Early Warning” agreement negotiated after the last Ukrainian gas cutoff that they had already cut gas flows to Belarus by 15% and that would increase cuts to 85% by the end of the week. Not very good news for the Belarusians who enjoy the most gasified economy in the world - everything there runs on gas.
Russia and Turkey: Rethinking Europe to Contest Outsider Status
International relations in Europe are now entering a period of flux as the legacy of the cold war wanes and the "outsider" countries, notably Russia and Turkey, are rethinking their mutual relations as well as their place in the world.
A Smiling Medveded
In Denmark last Tuesday, President Medvedev said he had a smiling face for the world. Not surprising. The deal he is reported to have done with President Yanukovitch should bring smiles to many Russian faces - mostly in the Kremlin. However, it is unlikely that the President’s namesake in Gazprom, Alexandre Medvedev is smiling because his company’s interests have once again been subordinated to Russia’s foreign policy agenda.
Who Needs OPEC - Russia steps up to the Plate ?
News that Conoco will sell off a significant portion of its Russian holdings is couched in terms of various corporate strategies that make all this perfectly normal. Conoco is said to need cash and will anyway have a 10% share remaining in Lukoil that will provide them some degree of influence in corporate decisions.
Ukraine - A Transit Country in Deadlock? Four Scenarios
Should we consider Ukraine a transit country in deadlock, and reduce its energy role just to that of a transit country? Definitely not, because Ukraine is at once a large gas consumer and producer, and possesses massive storage capacity. But the economic and political situation of the country is alarming, even without considering the possibility of another gas crisis Without such a crisis, however, the event of Ukrainian bankruptcy would attract less broad international attention simply because it would not have direct impact on European gas consumers.
Support independent French research
Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2024, Ifri will support more than 70 French and foreign companies and organizations.
