Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: A Political-Strategic Break?
On February 24, 2022, eight years after deploying an integrated military and non-military indirect strategy against Kiev, Vladimir Putin decided to initiate an open war against Ukraine.
The launching of this war may have seemed paradoxical insofar as the Russian military-political elites have, for the past thirty years, conceptualized and promoted the bypassing of the interstate armed struggle in order to achieve political objectives considered vital. This raises the question: did Russia's president choose to start this war after careful consideration, or was it a snap decision? In any case, Russia's decision to invade Ukraine also questions the cognitive frameworks of the actors who devise and lead Moscow's strategies. With their radically hostile perception of the strategic environment, Russia’s military-political elites are susceptible to acting in ways that are unpredictable, impulsive and, ultimately, counterproductive.
Dimitri Minic is a Research Fellow at Ifri’s Russia/NIS Center. He holds a PhD in History of International Relations from the Sorbonne University (2021).
This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.
Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: A Political-Strategic Break?
Dimitri MINIC
Research Fellow, Scientific Director of the Observatory on Russia, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, Ifri's Russia/Eurasia Center
Russia/Eurasia Center
Founded in 2005 within Ifri, the Russia/Eurasia Center conducts research and organizes debates on Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. Its goal is to understand and anticipate the evolution of this complex and rapidly changing geographical area in order to enrich public discourse in France and Europe and to assist in strategic, political, and economic decision-making.
The Plight of Russia’s Air Power in the Ukraine War: Drone-Driven Innovations and Transformation of Traditional Air Force
Since the start of the Ukraine War, Russian strategic guidelines on the application of air power—seen as the decisive instrument for achieving success in modern wars—have proven to be outdated, irrelevant and even self-defeating.
China in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan: From Economic Presence to a New Security Role
Over the past three decades, China’s influence in Central Asia has steadily expanded, but in the last three to five years this process has entered a markedly accelerated phase. Following 2022, Beijing effectively revised both its strategy and its operational approach toward the region.
Between Russia and Europe, between War and Peace: What is at Stake in Armenia’s Upcoming Elections?
Armenia’s June 7, 2026, parliamentary election is shaping up less as a routine vote than as a referendum on Nikol Pashinyan’s post-2020 course, which includes peace with neighbors, reduced dependence on Russia, and a more explicit European orientation. The ruling Civil Contract party is still the frontrunner, but its position is fragile, as the campaign is being fought in a highly polarized environment shaped by the trauma of defeat in the war against Azerbaijan, the displacement of Karabakh Armenians, and the massive election interference from Russia.
Russia, the Palestinians and Gaza: Adjustments after October 7th
The Soviet Union (USSR), and subsequently the Russian Federation as its internationally recognized legal successor, has consistently sought to play a visible role in efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.